First Trust Stock Forecast
Evaluation of First Trust stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Apr 24, 2024)
The First Trust stock price fell by -1.05% on the last day (Wednesday, 24th Apr 2024) from $11.78 to $11.66. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.61% from a day low at $11.66 to a day high of $11.85. The price has fallen in 5 of the last 10 days and is down by -3% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -3 thousand shares and in total, 3 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $32.16 thousand.
The stock is at the lower part of a horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $11.55 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect First Trust stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $11.49 and $12.09 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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FMY Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The First Trust stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $11.68 and $11.90. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, April 23, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.05%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this stock may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk. The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.
A sell signal from a double top formation was found on Thursday, March 28, 2024 with a target of $11.88. Despite whether the objective of the signal formation has been reached the stock may continue to fall.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust stock
First Trust finds support from accumulated volume at $11.64 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered very low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the stock During the last day, the stock moved $0.188 between high and low, or 1.61%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 0.779%
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (FMY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 25th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 25th we expect First Trust to open at $11.72, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $11.52 and $11.80, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.142 (+/-1.21%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.43% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $11.64 (0.17%) than the resistance at $11.82 (1.33%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is First Trust stock A Buy?
First Trust holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -3.724 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for First Trust of Thursday, April 25, 2024
| Fair opening price April 25, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $11.72 ( 0.537%) | $11.66 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for FMY
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 11.91 | 2.15 % | |
| R2 | 11.84 | 1.53 % | ||
| R1 | 11.79 | 1.15 % | ||
| Current price: | 11.66 | |||
| Support | S1 | 11.65 | -0.0785 % | |
| S2 | 11.61 | -0.459 % | ||
| S3 | 11.53 | -1.07 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 12.01 | 3.00 % | |
| R2 | 11.84 | 1.54 % | ||
| R1 | 11.82 | 1.33 % | ||
| Current price | 11.66 | |||
| Support | S1 | 11.64 | -0.172% | |
| S2 | 11.60 | -0.515% | ||
| S3 | 11.59 | -0.600% |
FMY Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 01, 2024 | May 01, 2024 | May 15, 2024 | $0.0825 | 0.708% |
| 2 | Apr 01, 2024 | Apr 01, 2024 | Apr 15, 2024 | $0.0825 | 0.710% |
| 3 | Feb 20, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 15, 2024 | $0.0825 | 0.689% |
| 4 | Jan 22, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 15, 2024 | $0.0825 | 0.699% |
| 5 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | Jan 16, 2024 | $0.0825 | 0.693% |
FAQ
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