Ultrapar Participacoes SA Stock Forecast
Evaluation of Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Apr 24, 2024)
The Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock price fell by -1.75% on the last day (Wednesday, 24th Apr 2024) from $5.13 to $5.04. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.49% from a day low at $5.01 to a day high of $5.09. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -7.86% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 411 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $6.24 million.
The stock lies in the lower of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $4.96 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -10.49% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $4.44 and $5.23 at the end of this 3-month period.
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UGP Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $5.12 and $5.55. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, February 21, 2024, and so far it has fallen -20.38%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.0749 between high and low, or 1.49%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.37%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (UGP) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 25th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 25th we expect Ultrapar Participacoes SA to open at $5.05, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $4.89 and $5.19, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.147 (+/-2.91%) up or down from last closing price. If Ultrapar Participacoes SA takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.82% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $5.58, some $0.540 (10.71%) from the current price of $5.04, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.
Earnings coming up
Ultrapar Participacoes SA will release earnings BMO on Wednesday, May 01, 2024. We will update the financials statements for Ultrapar Participacoes SA, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 4.19% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Ultrapar Participacoes SA stock A Buy?
Ultrapar Participacoes SA holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Strong Sell candidate.
Current score: -5.733 Strong Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Ultrapar Participacoes SA of Thursday, April 25, 2024
| Fair opening price April 25, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $5.05 ( 0.0999%) | $5.04 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for UGP
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 5.12 | 1.59 % | |
| R2 | 5.09 | 1.02 % | ||
| R1 | 5.07 | 0.668 % | ||
| Current price: | 5.04 | |||
| Support | S1 | 5.02 | -0.468 % | |
| S2 | 5.00 | -0.82 % | ||
| S3 | 4.97 | -1.39 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 5.92 | 17.46 % | |
| R2 | 5.79 | 14.88 % | ||
| R1 | 5.58 | 10.71 % | ||
| Current price | 5.04 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0 | . | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
UGP Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 29, 2024 | Mar 08, 2024 | Mar 25, 2024 | $0.0805 | 1.43% |
| 2 | Aug 18, 2023 | Aug 18, 2023 | Sep 05, 2023 | $0.0192 | 0.526% |
| 3 | Feb 16, 2023 | Feb 24, 2023 | Mar 13, 2023 | $0.0190 | 0.754% |
| 4 | May 16, 2022 | May 24, 2022 | Aug 22, 2022 | $0.0800 | 3.00% |
| 5 | Feb 24, 2022 | Mar 04, 2022 | Mar 21, 2022 | $0.0330 | 1.20% |
FAQ
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