Alliance Resource Stock Forecast
Weaker technical forecast for Alliance Resource as stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on Apr 18, 2024)
The Alliance Resource stock price fell by -0.331% on the last day (Thursday, 18th Apr 2024) from $21.13 to $21.06. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.50% from a day low at $20.91 to a day high of $21.22. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.1% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -99 thousand shares and in total, 236 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $4.97 million.
The stockis at the upper part of a wide and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $21.12 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Alliance Resource stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $17.87 and $20.74 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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ARLP Signals & Forecast
The Alliance Resource stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $21.03 and $20.10. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.331%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements. The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Friday, March 15, 2024 in the short-term chart.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Golden Star
The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Friday, March 15, 2024 in the short-term chart.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alliance Resource stock
Alliance Resource finds support from accumulated volume at $20.57 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $0.314 (1.50%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.67%.
The Alliance Resource stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: $20.32 (-3.51%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. The RSI14 is 81 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)
Trading Expectations (ARLP) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 19th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 19th we expect Alliance Resource Partners to open at $21.06, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $20.72 and $21.40, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.344 (+/-1.63%) up or down from last closing price. If Alliance Resource Partners takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.26% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $21.20 (0.66%) than the support at $20.57 (2.33%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Alliance Resource Partners stock A Buy?
Alliance Resource holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.555 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Alliance Resource Partners of Friday, April 19, 2024
| Fair opening price April 19, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $21.06 ( 0.0095%) | $21.06 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ARLP
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 21.38 | 1.50 % | |
| R2 | 21.26 | 0.93 % | ||
| R1 | 21.18 | 0.579 % | ||
| Current price: | 21.06 | |||
| Support | S1 | 20.94 | -0.560 % | |
| S2 | 20.87 | -0.91 % | ||
| S3 | 20.75 | -1.48 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 21.77 | 3.37 % | |
| R2 | 21.24 | 0.85 % | ||
| R1 | 21.20 | 0.665 % | ||
| Current price | 21.06 | |||
| Support | S1 | 20.57 | -2.33% | |
| S2 | 19.84 | -5.79% | ||
| S3 | 19.75 | -6.22% |
ARLP Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 26, 2024 | Feb 07, 2024 | Feb 14, 2024 | $0.700 | 3.54% |
| 2 | Jan 26, 2024 | Feb 06, 2024 | Feb 14, 2024 | $0.700 | 3.54% |
| 3 | Oct 25, 2023 | Nov 06, 2023 | Nov 14, 2023 | $0.700 | 3.13% |
| 4 | Jul 28, 2023 | Aug 04, 2023 | Aug 14, 2023 | $0.700 | 3.51% |
| 5 | Apr 28, 2023 | May 05, 2023 | May 15, 2023 | $0.700 | 3.65% |
FAQ
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