Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF Forecast
Evaluation of Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Mar 28, 2024)
The Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF price fell by -0.0169% on the last day (Thursday, 28th Mar 2024) from $59.25 to $59.24. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.688% from a day low at $59.05 to a day high of $59.46. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.72% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 546 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $128.41 million.
The ETF lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.82% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $55.38 and $58.44 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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VGLT Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the ETF today. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, March 06, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.13%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely. The Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $58.76 and $58.70. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF
Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond finds support from accumulated volume at $59.22 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.406 between high and low, or 0.688%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.564%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (VGLT) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 1st we expect Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF to open at $59.25, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $58.73 and $59.75, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.507 (+/-0.86%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.71% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $59.22 (0.03%) than the resistance at $60.36 (1.89%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF ETF A Buy?
Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.390 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF of Monday, April 1, 2024
Fair opening price April 1, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
$59.25 ( 0.0189%) | $59.24 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for VGLT
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 59.66 | 0.705 % | |
R2 | 59.50 | 0.443 % | ||
R1 | 59.41 | 0.281 % | ||
Current price: | 59.24 | |||
Support | S1 | 59.10 | -0.243 % | |
S2 | 59.00 | -0.405 % | ||
S3 | 58.84 | -0.667 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 60.57 | 2.25 % | |
R2 | 60.43 | 2.01 % | ||
R1 | 60.36 | 1.89 % | ||
Current price | 59.24 | |||
Support | S1 | 59.22 | -0.0338% | |
S2 | 58.83 | -0.692% | ||
S3 | 58.12 | -1.89% |
VGLT Dividend Payout History
# | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Feb 28, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 06, 2024 | $0.176 | 0.293% |
2 | Jan 30, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 06, 2024 | $0.188 | 0.316% |
3 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | $0.190 | 0.306% |
4 | Nov 29, 2023 | Dec 01, 2023 | Dec 06, 2023 | $0.178 | 0.298% |
5 | Oct 30, 2023 | Nov 01, 2023 | Nov 06, 2023 | $0.180 | 0.330% |
FAQ
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