Alibaba Stock Forecast
Stronger technical forecast for Alibaba stock price after Wednesday trading.
(Updated on Mar 27, 2024)
The Alibaba stock price gained 0.154% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 27th Mar 2024), rising from $71.48 to $71.59. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.57% from a day low at $70.58 to a day high of $71.69. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -6.28% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 3 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 13 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $940.90 million.
The stock is moving within a wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Alibaba stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $69.06 and $79.19 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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BABA Signals & Forecast
The Alibaba stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $72.58 and $73.72. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, March 25, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.182%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Alibaba stock
Alibaba finds support from accumulated volume at $70.78 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $1.11 between high and low, or 1.57%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.27%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $67.28 (-6.01%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 2 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (BABA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 28th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 28th we expect Alibaba Group Holding Limited to open at $71.29, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $70.03 and $73.15, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.56 (+/-2.18%) up or down from last closing price. If Alibaba Group Holding Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.35% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $72.02 (0.60%) than the support at $70.78 (1.13%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited stock A Buy?
Several of the signals/indicators are negative, and we believe that this will affect on the development for the next days and maybe possible weeks. However, over time, we think that today's level holds a possible buying opportunity and that the price will be higher during or at the end of this 3-month period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.770 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Alibaba Group Holding Limited of Thursday, March 28, 2024
Fair opening price March 28, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
$71.29 ( 0.423%) | $71.59 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for BABA
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 72.40 | 1.12 % | |
R2 | 71.97 | 0.534 % | ||
R1 | 71.71 | 0.168 % | ||
Current price: | 71.59 | |||
Support | S1 | 70.86 | -1.01 % | |
S2 | 70.60 | -1.38 % | ||
S3 | 70.18 | -1.97 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 74.02 | 3.39 % | |
R2 | 73.64 | 2.86 % | ||
R1 | 72.02 | 0.601 % | ||
Current price | 71.59 | |||
Support | S1 | 70.78 | -1.13% | |
S2 | 69.42 | -3.03% | ||
S3 | 68.63 | -4.13% |
BABA Dividend Payout History
# | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nov 16, 2023 | Dec 20, 2023 | Jan 18, 2024 | $1.00 | 1.47% |
FAQ
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