INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC Stock Forecast
Evaluation of INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Apr 24, 2024)
The INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC stock price gained 0.350% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 24th Apr 2024), rising from $8.58 to $8.61. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.31% from a day low at $8.45 to a day high of $8.65. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.53% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 140 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 929 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $8.00 million.
The stock is moving within a wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $8.03 and $9.59 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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IVR Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, April 18, 2024, and so far it has risen 6.43%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $8.99. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $8.30. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC stock
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC finds support from accumulated volume at $8.53 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.195 between high and low, or 2.31%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.34%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (IVR) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 25th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 25th we expect INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC to open at $8.57, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $8.38 and $8.84, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.226 (+/-2.63%) up or down from last closing price. If INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.25% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $8.62 (0.12%) than the support at $8.53 (0.93%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC stock A Buy?
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.334 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC of Thursday, April 25, 2024
| Fair opening price April 25, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $8.57 ( 0.484%) | $8.61 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for IVR
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 8.76 | 1.78 % | |
| R2 | 8.69 | 0.92 % | ||
| R1 | 8.64 | 0.381 % | ||
| Current price: | 8.61 | |||
| Support | S1 | 8.49 | -1.35 % | |
| S2 | 8.45 | -1.88 % | ||
| S3 | 8.37 | -2.75 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 9.41 | 9.29 % | |
| R2 | 8.66 | 0.581 % | ||
| R1 | 8.62 | 0.116 % | ||
| Current price | 8.61 | |||
| Support | S1 | 8.53 | -0.93% | |
| S2 | 8.48 | -1.51% | ||
| S3 | 8.25 | -4.18% |
IVR Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 26, 2024 | Apr 05, 2024 | Apr 26, 2024 | $0.400 | 4.64% |
| 2 | Dec 28, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | Jan 26, 2024 | $0.400 | 4.35% |
| 3 | Sep 26, 2023 | Oct 05, 2023 | Oct 27, 2023 | $0.400 | 6.14% |
| 4 | Jun 21, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | Jul 27, 2023 | $0.400 | 3.35% |
| 5 | Mar 27, 2023 | Apr 06, 2023 | Apr 27, 2023 | $0.400 | 3.86% |
FAQ
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