ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH Stock Forecast
Stronger technical forecast for ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH stock price after Thursday trading.
(Updated on Mar 28, 2024)
The ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH stock price gained 2.11% on the last trading day (Thursday, 28th Mar 2024), rising from HK$68.80 to HK$70.25. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.39% from a day low at HK$69.35 to a day high of HK$71.70. The price has fallen in 5 of the last 10 days and is down by -4.36% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -3 million shares and in total, 63 million shares were bought and sold for approximately HK$4.45 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock is moving within a wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH stock with a 90% probability to be traded between HK$67.72 and HK$78.20 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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9988.HK Signals & Forecast
The ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at HK$70.64 and HK$72.16. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, March 27, 2024, and so far it has risen 2.11%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH stock
ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH finds support from accumulated volume at HK$69.30 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved HK$2.35 (3.39%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.53%.
Our recommended stop-loss: HK$66.89 (-4.78%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 1 day ago.)
Trading Expectations (9988.HK) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 2nd
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 2nd we expect ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH to open at HK$70.43, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between HK$68.18 and HK$72.32, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-HK$2.07 (+/-2.95%) up or down from last closing price. If ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.90% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at HK$70.30 (0.07%) than the support at HK$69.30 (1.35%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH stock A Buy?
Several of the signals/indicators are negative, and we believe that this will affect on the development for the next days and maybe possible weeks. However, over time, we think that today's level holds a possible buying opportunity and that the price will be higher during or at the end of this 3-month period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.373 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for ALIBABA GRP HLD/SH SH of Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Fair opening price April 2, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
HK$70.43 ( 0.261%) | HK$70.25 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for 9988.HK
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 72.78 | 3.61 % | |
R2 | 71.89 | 2.33 % | ||
R1 | 71.33 | 1.54 % | ||
Current price: | 70.25 | |||
Support | S1 | 69.54 | -1.02 % | |
S2 | 68.98 | -1.81 % | ||
S3 | 68.08 | -3.08 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 74.85 | 6.55 % | |
R2 | 72.60 | 3.35 % | ||
R1 | 70.30 | 0.0712 % | ||
Current price | 70.25 | |||
Support | S1 | 69.30 | -1.35% | |
S2 | 67.65 | -3.70% | ||
S3 | 65.45 | -6.83% |
9988 Dividend Payout History
# | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 20, 2023 | HK$0 | 0% |
FAQ
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