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Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation Stock Forecast NYSE:ACRE

$14.22 (-0.70%)

Volume: 678k

Closed: Jan 21, 2022

Hollow Logo Score: -4.629

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation Stock Forecast

$14.22 (-0.70%)

Volume: 678k

Closed: Jan 21, 2022

Score Hollow Logo -4.629
Which way will ACRE go? Request

Explanation to Bollinger's Bands

Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.

Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.

Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation

BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.

BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)

Live Samples:

Bollinger Bottleneck Buy Pattern 1
Bollinger Bottleneck Buy Pattern 2
Bollinger Bottleneck Sell Pattern

Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicates a upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line, or continuously movements above the moving average line indicates a break up, and vice versa downwards.

Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com

Earnings Date: Feb 16, 2022
Key Stats
P/E Ratio 11.66
Beta 1.04
Trailing Dividend Rate 8.97% ($1.28)
* StockInvest.us uses dynamically calculated RSI max/min levels to determine when stock is oversold or overbought based on historical behavior.
RSImin/max Values: [ 25 - 75 ] RSI14 is 40 and the stock is currently not being overbought or oversold

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation stock price down 0.7% on Friday
(Updated on Jan 21, 2022)


Sell candidate since 2022-01-18 Loss -4.50% PDF

The Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation stock price fell by -0.70% on the last day (Friday, 21st Jan 2022) from $14.32 to $14.22. and has now fallen 7 days in a row. During the day the stock fluctuated 2.05% from a day low at $14.12 to a day high of $14.41. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -2.94% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 212 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 678 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $9.64 million.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -9.12% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $12.11 and $13.54 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $14.73 and $14.68. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, January 12, 2022, and so far it has fallen -5.45%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation finds support from accumulated volume at $14.07 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.29 between high and low, or 2.05%. For the last week the stock has had a daily average volatility of 2.13%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold an negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Is Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation stock A Buy?

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.

Current score: -4.629

Sell Candidate Unchanged

Insiders are very positive buying more shares than they are selling in Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation

In the last 100 trades there were 816.67 thousand shares bought and 182.92 thousand shares sold. The last trade was done 4 days ago by Donohoe Bryan Patrick who sold 8.81 thousand shares. The large amount of stocks bought compared to stocks sold indicate that the insiders believe there is a potential good upside. In some cases larger purchases can be explained by due date for stock options.

Predicted Opening Price for Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation of Monday, January 24, 2022

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and the closing price.

Fair opening price January 24, 2022 Current price
$14.25 $14.22 (Undervalued)

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Analyst Ratings

On Nov 12, 2021 "BTIG Research" gave "$16.50" rating for ACRE. The price target was set to $16.03+0.9%.

Volatility and Risk
Daily Average Volatility: 2.13 %
Overall Risk: Very High High Medium Low Very Low
Volatility
2.13 %
Daily Average Volatility
Overall Risk

Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low

Support & Resistance

Resistance: $14.48
Price: $14.22
Support: $14.07

ACRE Insider Trading Show all Trades

INSIDER POWER

81.285

Last 100 transactions
Buy: 816 670 | Sell: 182 919 (Shares)
Date Action Amount Person Type
Jan 18, 2022 Sell 8 813 Donohoe Bryan Patrick Common Stock
Jan 18, 2022 Sell 1 415 Feingold Anton Common Stock
Dec 16, 2021 Buy 5 000 Parekh Rebecca Jaisali Common Stock
Dec 09, 2021 Buy 52 500 Donohoe Bryan Patrick Common Stock
Dec 09, 2021 Buy 13 500 Feingold Anton Common Stock
Show all Insider Trades
INSIDER POWER

81.285

Last 100 transactions
Buy: 816 670 | Sell: 182 919 (Shares)

Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels

Level Price Change
Resistance 14.54 2.25 %
14.43 1.47 %
14.36 0.99 %
Current price: 14.22
Support 14.14 -0.57 %
14.07 -1.05 %
13.96 -1.83 %

Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels

Level Price Chg %
Resistance 14.90 4.78 %
14.75 3.73 %
14.48 1.83 %
Current price 14.22
Support 14.07 -1.05%
14.06 -1.13%
13.86 -2.53%

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About Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation

Ares Commercial Real Estate Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation, a specialty finance company, originates, manages, and services a portfolio of commercial real estate (CRE) debt-related investments. The company operates in two segments, Principal Lending and Mortgage Banking. Its target investments include senior mortgage loans, subordinated debt, preferred equity, mezzanine loans and other CRE investments. The company also originates long-term senior loans collateralize... Read more

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