Chemung Financial Corp Stock Forecast
Chemung Financial Corp stock downgraded to Sell Candidate
(Updated on Apr 23, 2024)
The Chemung Financial Corp stock price fell by -2.13% on the last day (Tuesday, 23rd Apr 2024) from $44.69 to $43.74. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.26% from a day low at $43.45 to a day high of $45.30. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still up by 7.23% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -3 thousand shares and in total, 22 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $940.94 thousand.
The stock lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $44.59 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -12.45% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $33.97 and $39.04 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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CHMG Signals & Forecast
The Chemung Financial Corp stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the stock has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $41.45 and $41.55. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, April 22, 2024, and so far it has fallen -2.13%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this stock may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Chemung Financial Corp stock
Chemung Financial Corp finds support from accumulated volume at $42.43 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day, but be aware of low or falling volume as this increases the risk. During the last day, the stock moved $1.85 between high and low, or 4.26%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.22%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (CHMG) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 24th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 24th we expect Chemung Financial Corp to open at $44.16, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $42.64 and $44.84, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.10 (+/-2.51%) up or down from last closing price. If Chemung Financial Corp takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.02% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $44.69 (2.17%) than the support at $42.43 (2.99%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Chemung Financial Corp stock A Buy?
Chemung Financial Corp holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.429 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Chemung Financial Corp of Wednesday, April 24, 2024
| Fair opening price April 24, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $44.16 ( 0.97%) | $43.74 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CHMG
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 46.01 | 5.20 % | |
| R2 | 45.31 | 3.58 % | ||
| R1 | 44.87 | 2.58 % | ||
| Current price: | 43.74 | |||
| Support | S1 | 43.46 | -0.648 % | |
| S2 | 43.02 | -1.65 % | ||
| S3 | 42.31 | -3.26 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 49.55 | 13.28 % | |
| R2 | 45.84 | 4.80 % | ||
| R1 | 44.69 | 2.17 % | ||
| Current price | 43.74 | |||
| Support | S1 | 42.43 | -2.99% | |
| S2 | 42.00 | -3.98% | ||
| S3 | 39.98 | -8.60% |
CHMG Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 21, 2024 | Mar 15, 2024 | Apr 01, 2024 | $0.310 | 0.741% |
| 2 | Nov 15, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | Jan 02, 2024 | $0.310 | 0.621% |
| 3 | Aug 16, 2023 | Sep 15, 2023 | Oct 02, 2023 | $0.310 | 0.783% |
| 4 | May 17, 2023 | Jun 16, 2023 | Jul 03, 2023 | $0.310 | 0.80% |
| 5 | Feb 15, 2023 | Mar 17, 2023 | Apr 03, 2023 | $0.310 | 0.748% |
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