Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicates a upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line, or continuously movements above the moving average line indicates a break up, and vice versa downwards.
Evaluation of FalconStor Software stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Jan 21, 2022)
Sell candidate since 2022-01-21 PDF
The FalconStor Software stock price fell by -1.52% on the last day (Friday, 21st Jan 2022) from $1.98 to $1.95. During the day the stock fluctuated 0.51% from a day low at $1.95 to a day high of $1.96. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 5.41% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 759 shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 760 shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.48 thousand.
The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $1.96 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -40.56% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $0.64 and $1.16 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The FalconStor Software stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $1.97 and $2.19. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, January 20, 2022, and so far it has fallen -1.52%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. FalconStor Software gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs". The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss
FalconStor Software finds support from accumulated volume at $1.87 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.0100 between high and low, or 0.51%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 0.10%.
The FalconStor Software stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought and the RSI is still moving upwards. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely, and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold an negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Is FalconStor Software stock A Buy?
FalconStor Software holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Strong Sell candidate.
Current score: -6.753Strong Sell Candidate Downgraded
Insiders are very positive buying more shares than they are selling in FalconStor Software
In the last 100 trades there were 1.89 billion shares bought and 968.98 million shares sold. The last trade was done 67 days ago by Brooks Robert Todd who bough 350 shares. The large amount of stocks bought compared to stocks sold indicate that the insiders believe there is a potential good upside. In some cases larger purchases can be explained by due date for stock options.
Predicted Opening Price for FalconStor Software of Monday, January 24, 2022
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and the closing price.
|Fair opening price January 24, 2022||Current price|
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FALC Insider Trading
|Nov 16, 2021||Buy||350||Brooks Robert Todd||Common Stock|
|Sep 30, 2020||Buy||73 600||Kelly Michael P||Common Stock|
|Sep 30, 2020||Buy||14 720||Wolfe Brad||Common Stock|
|Sep 30, 2020||Buy||73 600||Rudolph Barry||Common Stock|
|Sep 30, 2020||Buy||73 600||Miller William D||Common Stock|
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