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FalconStor Software Stock Forecast NASDAQ:FALC

$1.95 (-1.52%)

Volume: 760

Closed: Jan 21, 2022

Hollow Logo Score: -6.753

FalconStor Software Stock Forecast

$1.95 (-1.52%)

Volume: 760

Closed: Jan 21, 2022

Score Hollow Logo -6.753
Which way will FALC go? Request

Explanation to Bollinger's Bands

Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.

Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.

Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation

BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.

BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)

Live Samples:

Bollinger Bottleneck Buy Pattern 1
Bollinger Bottleneck Buy Pattern 2
Bollinger Bottleneck Sell Pattern

Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicates a upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line, or continuously movements above the moving average line indicates a break up, and vice versa downwards.

Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com

Key Stats
P/E Ratio -11.45
* StockInvest.us uses dynamically calculated RSI max/min levels to determine when stock is oversold or overbought based on historical behavior.
RSImin/max Values: [ 20 - 80 ] The FalconStor Software stock holds an RSI14 at 83 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sell signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.

Evaluation of FalconStor Software stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Jan 21, 2022)


Sell candidate since 2022-01-21 PDF

The FalconStor Software stock price fell by -1.52% on the last day (Friday, 21st Jan 2022) from $1.98 to $1.95. During the day the stock fluctuated 0.51% from a day low at $1.95 to a day high of $1.96. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 5.41% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 759 shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 760 shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.48 thousand.

The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $1.96 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -40.56% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $0.64 and $1.16 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

Signals & Forecast

Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The FalconStor Software stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $1.97 and $2.19. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, January 20, 2022, and so far it has fallen -1.52%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. FalconStor Software gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs". The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss

FalconStor Software finds support from accumulated volume at $1.87 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.0100 between high and low, or 0.51%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 0.10%.

The FalconStor Software stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought and the RSI is still moving upwards. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely, and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold an negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Is FalconStor Software stock A Buy?

FalconStor Software holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Strong Sell candidate.

Current score: -6.753

Strong Sell Candidate Downgraded

Insiders are very positive buying more shares than they are selling in FalconStor Software

In the last 100 trades there were 1.89 billion shares bought and 968.98 million shares sold. The last trade was done 67 days ago by Brooks Robert Todd who bough 350 shares. The large amount of stocks bought compared to stocks sold indicate that the insiders believe there is a potential good upside. In some cases larger purchases can be explained by due date for stock options.

Predicted Opening Price for FalconStor Software of Monday, January 24, 2022

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and the closing price.

Fair opening price January 24, 2022 Current price
$1.95 $1.95 (Undervalued)

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Volatility and Risk
Daily Average Volatility: 0.10 %
Overall Risk: Very High High Medium Low Very Low
Volatility
0.10 %
Daily Average Volatility
Overall Risk

Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low

Support & Resistance

Resistance: $1.98
Price: $1.95
Support: $1.87

FALC Insider Trading Show all Trades

INSIDER POWER

91.037

Last 100 transactions
Buy: 1 891 673 648 | Sell: 968 983 437 (Shares)
Date Action Amount Person Type
Nov 16, 2021 Buy 350 Brooks Robert Todd Common Stock
Sep 30, 2020 Buy 73 600 Kelly Michael P Common Stock
Sep 30, 2020 Buy 14 720 Wolfe Brad Common Stock
Sep 30, 2020 Buy 73 600 Rudolph Barry Common Stock
Sep 30, 2020 Buy 73 600 Miller William D Common Stock
Show all Insider Trades
INSIDER POWER

91.037

Last 100 transactions
Buy: 1 891 673 648 | Sell: 968 983 437 (Shares)

Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels

Level Price Change
Resistance 1.96 0.68 %
1.96 0.49 %
1.96 0.37 %
Current price: 1.95
Support 1.95 -0.0250 %
1.95 -0.15 %
1.94 -0.34 %

Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels

Level Price Chg %
Resistance 2.25 15.38 %
2.10 7.69 %
1.98 1.54 %
Current price 1.95
Support 1.87 -4.10%
1.83 -6.15%
1.70 -12.82%

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About FalconStor Software

FalconStor Software FalconStor Software, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells data migration, business continuity, disaster recovery, optimized backup, and de-duplication solutions worldwide. It offers FreeStor, a software-defined platform that provides migration, continuity, protection, recovery, and optimization for storage environment through a single management interface; FalconStor network storage server for migration, storage virtualization, provisioning, an... Read more

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