FIRST TRUST EMERGING ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Red day on Wednesday for FIRST TRUST EMERGING
(Updated on Apr 24, 2024)
The FIRST TRUST EMERGING ETF price fell by -0.88% on the last day (Wednesday, 24th Apr 2024) from $27.37 to $27.13. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.08% from a day low at $27.00 to a day high of $27.29. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -3.62% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 243 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 276 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $7.48 million.
The ETF has broken the narrow and falling short-term trend down. Firstly a stronger fallrate is indicated, but false breaks and "sell-off" may occur. However, a further fall is realistic and any reactions back to the breaking point ($27.74) are considered to be a "second chance" to get out. According to the fan-theory $27.16 will represent the new bottom line of the next trend, but it is far too early to say this for certain.
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FEMB Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The FIRST TRUST EMERGING ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $27.25 and $28.12. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, April 09, 2024, and so far it has fallen -4.81%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for FIRST TRUST EMERGING ETF
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the ETF may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.292 between high and low, or 1.08%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.88%.
FIRST TRUST EMERGING is oversold on RSI14 (21). Some ETFS may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (FEMB) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 25th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 25th we expect FIRST TRUST EMERGING MARKETS LOCAL CURRENCY BOND ETF to open at $27.14, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $26.69 and $27.57, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.435 (+/-1.60%) up or down from last closing price. If FIRST TRUST EMERGING MARKETS LOCAL CURRENCY BOND ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.21% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $28.21, some $1.08 (3.97%) from the current price of $27.13, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.
Is FIRST TRUST EMERGING MARKETS LOCAL CURRENCY BOND ETF ETF A Buy?
FIRST TRUST EMERGING holds several negative signals and is within a narrow and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
Current score: -4.884 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for FIRST TRUST EMERGING MARKETS LOCAL CURRENCY BOND ETF of Thursday, April 25, 2024
| Fair opening price April 25, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $27.14 ( 0.0348%) | $27.13 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for FEMB
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 27.43 | 1.11 % | |
| R2 | 27.32 | 0.699 % | ||
| R1 | 27.25 | 0.445 % | ||
| Current price: | 27.13 | |||
| Support | S1 | 27.03 | -0.376 % | |
| S2 | 26.96 | -0.630 % | ||
| S3 | 26.85 | -1.04 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 28.51 | 5.09 % | |
| R2 | 28.40 | 4.68 % | ||
| R1 | 28.21 | 3.97 % | ||
| Current price | 27.13 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0 | . | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
FEMB Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.133 | 0.470% |
| 2 | Feb 20, 2024 | Feb 21, 2024 | Feb 29, 2024 | $0.133 | 0.467% |
| 3 | Jan 22, 2024 | Jan 23, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | $0.125 | 0.436% |
| 4 | Dec 21, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.125 | 0.429% |
| 5 | Nov 20, 2023 | Nov 21, 2023 | Nov 30, 2023 | $0.125 | 0.442% |
FAQ
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