First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Evaluation of First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan ETF downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Apr 22, 2024)
The First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan ETF price gained 0.80% on the last trading day (Monday, 22nd Apr 2024), rising from $26.22 to $26.43. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.246% from a day low at $26.43 to a day high of $26.50. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -3.36% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -3 thousand shares and in total, 262 shares were bought and sold for approximately $6.92 thousand. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF lies in the lower part of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $25.89 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 3.76% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $26.86 and $29.93 at the end of this 3-month period.
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FPA Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the ETF today. The First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $27.30. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $26.11. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day while the price increased. This causes a divergence and may be considered as an early warning, but it may not be. The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, and so far it has risen 2.36%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan ETF
First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan finds support from accumulated volume at $26.22 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0650 between high and low, or 0.246%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.743%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (FPA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 23rd
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 23rd we expect First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan AlphaDEX Fund to open at $26.45, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $26.11 and $26.75, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.319 (+/-1.21%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan AlphaDEX Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.41% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $26.22 (0.79%) than the resistance at $26.97 (2.04%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan AlphaDEX Fund ETF A Buy?
First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.560 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan AlphaDEX Fund of Tuesday, April 23, 2024
| Fair opening price April 23, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $26.45 ( 0.0820%) | $26.43 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for FPA
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 26.52 | 0.328 % | |
| R2 | 26.49 | 0.234 % | ||
| R1 | 26.48 | 0.176 % | ||
| Current price: | 26.43 | |||
| Support | S1 | 26.43 | -0.0120 % | |
| S2 | 26.41 | -0.0700 % | ||
| S3 | 26.39 | -0.164 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 27.29 | 3.25 % | |
| R2 | 27.08 | 2.46 % | ||
| R1 | 26.97 | 2.04 % | ||
| Current price | 26.43 | |||
| Support | S1 | 26.22 | -0.795% | |
| S2 | 26.01 | -1.59% | ||
| S3 | 25.90 | -2.01% |
FPA Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 20, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.118 | 0.428% |
| 2 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.272 | 1.00% |
| 3 | Sep 21, 2023 | Sep 22, 2023 | Sep 29, 2023 | $0.181 | 0.709% |
| 4 | Jun 26, 2023 | Jun 27, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | $0.134 | 0.505% |
| 5 | Mar 23, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | Mar 31, 2023 | $0.236 | 0.88% |
FAQ
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