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First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan Fund Forecast NYSEARCA:FPA

$30.94 (-1.18%)

Volume: 697

Closed: Jan 21, 2022

Hollow Logo Score: -5.057

First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan Fund Forecast

$30.94 (-1.18%)

Volume: 697

Closed: Jan 21, 2022

Score Hollow Logo -5.057
Which way will FPA go? Request

Explanation to Bollinger's Bands

Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.

Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.

Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation

BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.

BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)

Live Samples:

Bollinger Bottleneck Buy Pattern 1
Bollinger Bottleneck Buy Pattern 2
Bollinger Bottleneck Sell Pattern

Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicates a upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line, or continuously movements above the moving average line indicates a break up, and vice versa downwards.

Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com

FPA Fund Risk

In general the fund tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the fund moved $0 between high and low, or 0%. For the last week the fund has had a daily average volatility of 0.53%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a sell evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss set.

Overall risk:

Very Low Low Medium High Very High

* StockInvest.us uses dynamically calculated RSI max/min levels to determine when stock is oversold or overbought based on historical behavior.
RSImin/max Values: [ 25 - 75 ] RSI14 is 47 and the fund is currently not being overbought or oversold

First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan fund downgraded from Sell Candidate to Strong Sell Candidate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on Jan 21, 2022)


Sell candidate since 2022-01-20 Loss -1.18% PDF

The First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan fund price fell by -1.18% on the last day (Friday, 21st Jan 2022) from $31.31 to $30.94. During the day the fund fluctuated 0% from a day low at $30.94 to a day high of $30.94. The price has risen in 5 of the last 10 days, but is still down by -0.51% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 240 shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 697 shares were bought and sold for approximately $21.57 thousand.

The fund lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the fund is expected to fall -4.12% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $28.70 and $30.18 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

Signals & Forecast

Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan fund holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $31.54 and $31.48. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, December 09, 2021, and so far it has fallen -3.66%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs". The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss

First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan finds support from accumulated volume at $30.91 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the fund tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the fund moved $0 between high and low, or 0%. For the last week the fund has had a daily average volatility of 0.53%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold an negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Is First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan AlphaDEX Fund fund A Buy?

First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this fund. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this fund since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Strong Sell candidate.

Current score: -5.057

Strong Sell Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Opening Price for First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan AlphaDEX Fund of Monday, January 24, 2022

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and the closing price.

Fair opening price January 24, 2022 Current price
$30.94 $30.94 (Undervalued)

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Volatility and Risk
Daily Average Volatility: 0.53 %
Overall Risk: Very High High Medium Low Very Low
Volatility
0.53 %
Daily Average Volatility
Overall Risk

Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low

Support & Resistance

Resistance: $31.42
Price: $30.94
Support: $30.91

Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels

Level Price Change
Resistance 30.94 .
30.94 .
30.94 .
Current price: 30.94
Support 30.94 .
30.94 .
30.94 .

Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels

Level Price Chg %
Resistance 32.43 4.82 %
32.14 3.88 %
31.42 1.55 %
Current price 30.94
Support 30.91 -0.0970%
30.79 -0.49%
30.70 -0.78%

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About First Trust Asia Pacific Ex-Japan AlphaDEX Fund

FPA was created on 04/18/11 by First Trust. The ETF tracks an index that selects and weights 100 stocks from the S&P Asia Pacific Ex-Japan BMI Index based on their growth and value factors.... Read more

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