First Merchants Corporation Stock Forecast
First Merchants Corporation stock upgraded from Sell Candidate to Buy Candidate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 19, 2024)
The First Merchants Corporation stock price gained 3.49% on the last trading day (Friday, 19th Apr 2024), rising from $32.92 to $34.07. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.31% from a day low at $32.70 to a day high of $34.11. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 1.31% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 110 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 298 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $10.14 million.
The stock lies the upper part of a falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $34.55 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -4.02% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $30.48 and $33.16 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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FRME Signals & Forecast
The First Merchants Corporation stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the stock has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $33.02 and $33.64. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, and so far it has risen 4.90%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
A buy signal from a double bottom formation was found on Wednesday, April 17, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should go up by 6.45% to $36.27 within 21 trading days since signal was issued (Monday, April 22, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Merchants Corporation stock
First Merchants Corporation finds support from accumulated volume at $34.02 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $1.41 (4.31%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.71%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $32.62 (-4.26%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 2 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (FRME) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 22nd
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 22nd we expect First Merchants Corporation to open at $33.63, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $33.20 and $34.94, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.87 (+/-2.56%) up or down from last closing price. If First Merchants Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.11% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $34.02 (0.15%) than the resistance at $34.23 (0.47%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Earnings coming up
First Merchants Corporation will release earnings BMO on Thursday, April 25, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.82. We will update the financials statements for First Merchants Corporation, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 4.40% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is First Merchants Corporation stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals are positive, despite the stock being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.570 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for First Merchants Corporation of Monday, April 22, 2024
| Fair opening price April 22, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $33.63 ( 1.30%) | $34.07 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for FRME
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 35.04 | 2.84 % | |
| R2 | 34.50 | 1.26 % | ||
| R1 | 34.17 | 0.280 % | ||
| Current price: | 34.07 | |||
| Support | S1 | 33.09 | -2.88 % | |
| S2 | 32.76 | -3.86 % | ||
| S3 | 32.22 | -5.44 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 35.21 | 3.35 % | |
| R2 | 34.90 | 2.44 % | ||
| R1 | 34.23 | 0.470 % | ||
| Current price | 34.07 | |||
| Support | S1 | 34.02 | -0.147% | |
| S2 | 33.74 | -0.97% | ||
| S3 | 32.78 | -3.79% |
FRME Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 29, 2024 | Feb 29, 2024 | Feb 29, 2024 | $0 | 0% |
| 2 | Nov 09, 2023 | Nov 30, 2023 | Dec 15, 2023 | $0.340 | 0.93% |
| 3 | Aug 08, 2023 | Aug 31, 2023 | Sep 15, 2023 | $0.340 | 1.17% |
| 4 | May 10, 2023 | Jun 01, 2023 | Jun 16, 2023 | $0.340 | 1.18% |
| 5 | Feb 07, 2023 | Mar 02, 2023 | Mar 17, 2023 | $0.320 | 0.92% |
FAQ
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