SMART Global Holdings Inc Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Evaluation of SMART Global Holdings Inc stock downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Apr 24, 2024)
The SMART Global Holdings Inc stock price fell by -0.95% on the last day (Wednesday, 24th Apr 2024) from $17.93 to $17.76. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.66% from a day low at $17.74 to a day high of $18.39. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -9.76% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -125 thousand shares and in total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $21.14 million.
The stock lies in the lower part of a very wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $16.95 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 2.21% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $17.32 and $27.69 at the end of this 3-month period.
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SGH Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 4.96%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The SMART Global Holdings Inc stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $17.92 and $22.82. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for SMART Global Holdings Inc stock
SMART Global Holdings Inc finds support from accumulated volume at $17.72 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock may move very much during the day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.650 between high and low, or 3.66%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 5.32%.
SMART Global Holdings Inc is oversold on RSI14 (18). Some stocks may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (SGH) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 25th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 25th we expect SMART Global Holdings Inc to open at $17.96, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $16.57 and $18.95, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.19 (+/-6.71%) up or down from last closing price. If SMART Global Holdings Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 13.42% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $17.72 (0.23%) than the resistance at $19.44 (9.46%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is SMART Global Holdings Inc stock A Buy?
The SMART Global Holdings Inc stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe SMART Global Holdings Inc will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.485 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for SMART Global Holdings Inc of Thursday, April 25, 2024
| Fair opening price April 25, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $17.96 ( 1.14%) | $17.76 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SGH
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 18.61 | 4.80 % | |
| R2 | 18.37 | 3.41 % | ||
| R1 | 18.21 | 2.54 % | ||
| Current price: | 17.76 | |||
| Support | S1 | 17.72 | -0.253 % | |
| S2 | 17.56 | -1.12 % | ||
| S3 | 17.31 | -2.52 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 22.16 | 24.77 % | |
| R2 | 19.68 | 10.81 % | ||
| R1 | 19.44 | 9.46 % | ||
| Current price | 17.76 | |||
| Support | S1 | 17.72 | -0.225% | |
| S2 | 17.21 | -3.10% | ||
| S3 | 16.92 | -4.73% |
FAQ
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