SPY ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
SPY ETF upgraded from Sell Candidate to Buy Candidate after Tuesday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 23, 2024)
The ETF lies in the middle of a weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 4.75% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $519.50 and $555.33 at the end of this 3-month period.
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SPY Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the ETF today. The SPY ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $513.45. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $501.20. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 2.11%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for SPY ETF
SPY finds support from accumulated volume at $495.16 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $6.56 between high and low, or 1.31%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.32%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $480.34 (-5.00%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 2 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (SPY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 24th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 24th we expect SPDR S&P 500 ETF to open at $503.75, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $499.61 and $511.63, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$6.01 (+/-1.19%) up or down from last closing price. If SPDR S&P 500 ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.38% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $509.67 (0.80%) than the support at $495.16 (2.07%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is SPDR S&P 500 ETF ETF A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for SPY ETF to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.068 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for SPDR S&P 500 ETF of Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Fair opening price April 24, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
$503.75 ( 0.370%) | $505.62 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SPY
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 510.30 | 0.93 % | |
R2 | 507.80 | 0.431 % | ||
R1 | 506.25 | 0.125 % | ||
Current price: | 505.62 | |||
Support | S1 | 501.24 | -0.87 % | |
S2 | 499.70 | -1.17 % | ||
S3 | 497.19 | -1.67 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 523.07 | 3.45 % | |
R2 | 514.95 | 1.85 % | ||
R1 | 509.67 | 0.80 % | ||
Current price | 505.62 | |||
Support | S1 | 495.16 | -2.07% | |
S2 | 494.08 | -2.28% | ||
S3 | 482.91 | -4.49% |
SPY Dividend Payout History
# | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mar 15, 2024 | Mar 15, 2024 | Apr 30, 2024 | $1.59 | 0.315% |
2 | Dec 15, 2023 | Dec 15, 2023 | Dec 15, 2023 | $1.91 | 0.406% |
3 | Jan 19, 2023 | Sep 15, 2023 | Oct 31, 2023 | $1.58 | 0.379% |
4 | Jan 19, 2023 | Jun 16, 2023 | Jul 31, 2023 | $1.64 | 0.358% |
5 | Jan 19, 2023 | Mar 17, 2023 | Apr 28, 2023 | $1.51 | 0.362% |
FAQ
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