XLE ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Green day on Wednesday for XLE
(Updated on Apr 24, 2024)
The XLE ETF price gained 0.0728% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 24th Apr 2024), rising from $96.12 to $96.19. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.30% from a day low at $95.06 to a day high of $96.30. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.64% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -4 million shares and in total, 10 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.00 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF lies in the lower part of a strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $94.90 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 19.01% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $112.93 and $120.76 at the end of this 3-month period.
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XLE Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the ETF today. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, April 05, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.92%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). The XLE ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $95.03 and $93.69. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for XLE ETF
XLE finds support from accumulated volume at $95.23 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.24 between high and low, or 1.30%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.73%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $92.47 (-3.87%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 13 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (XLE) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 25th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 25th we expect Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund to open at $95.85, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $94.65 and $97.73, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.54 (+/-1.60%) up or down from last closing price. If Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.19% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $96.45 (0.27%) than the support at $95.23 (1.00%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for XLE ETF to perform well in the short-term.
Current score: 2.090 Buy Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund of Thursday, April 25, 2024
| Fair opening price April 25, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $95.85 ( 0.353%) | $96.19 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for XLE
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 97.09 | 0.94 % | |
| R2 | 96.62 | 0.443 % | ||
| R1 | 96.32 | 0.139 % | ||
| Current price: | 96.19 | |||
| Support | S1 | 95.38 | -0.85 % | |
| S2 | 95.08 | -1.15 % | ||
| S3 | 94.61 | -1.64 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 97.79 | 1.66 % | |
| R2 | 97.65 | 1.52 % | ||
| R1 | 96.45 | 0.270 % | ||
| Current price | 96.19 | |||
| Support | S1 | 95.23 | -1.00% | |
| S2 | 83.40 | -13.30% | ||
| S3 | 83.31 | -13.39% |
XLE Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 18, 2024 | Mar 18, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | $0.734 | 0.793% |
| 2 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | $0.80 | 0.95% |
| 3 | Jan 13, 2023 | Sep 18, 2023 | Sep 21, 2023 | $0.674 | 0.756% |
| 4 | Jan 13, 2023 | Jun 20, 2023 | Jun 23, 2023 | $0.706 | 0.91% |
| 5 | Jan 13, 2023 | Mar 20, 2023 | Mar 23, 2023 | $0.795 | 1.02% |
FAQ
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