Applied Optoelectronics Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Red day on Thursday for Applied Optoelectronics
(Updated on Apr 18, 2024)
The Applied Optoelectronics stock price fell by -2.67% on the last day (Thursday, 18th Apr 2024) from $11.98 to $11.66. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 8.62% from a day low at $11.60 to a day high of $12.60. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -10.31% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -194 thousand shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $27.28 million.
The stock lies in the lower of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $10.81 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -29.59% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $7.61 and $12.22 at the end of this 3-month period.
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AAOI Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, April 15, 2024, and so far it has risen 4.48%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Applied Optoelectronics stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $11.67 and $13.54. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Applied Optoelectronics stock
Applied Optoelectronics finds support from accumulated volume at $11.23 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.00 between high and low, or 8.62%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 8.73%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (AAOI) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 19th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 19th we expect Applied Optoelectronics to open at $11.95, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $10.73 and $12.59, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.93 (+/-7.98%) up or down from last closing price. If Applied Optoelectronics takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 15.97% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $11.98 (2.74%) than the support at $11.23 (3.69%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Applied Optoelectronics stock A Buy?
Applied Optoelectronics holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.
Current score: -4.218 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Applied Optoelectronics of Friday, April 19, 2024
| Fair opening price April 19, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $11.95 ( 2.52%) | $11.66 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for AAOI
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 12.95 | 11.09 % | |
| R2 | 12.57 | 7.82 % | ||
| R1 | 12.34 | 5.79 % | ||
| Current price: | 11.66 | |||
| Support | S1 | 11.57 | -0.760 % | |
| S2 | 11.34 | -2.78 % | ||
| S3 | 10.95 | -6.06 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 14.15 | 21.36 % | |
| R2 | 14.08 | 20.75 % | ||
| R1 | 11.98 | 2.74 % | ||
| Current price | 11.66 | |||
| Support | S1 | 11.23 | -3.69% | |
| S2 | 11.16 | -4.29% | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
FAQ
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