Arch Capital Group Ltd. Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock upgraded to Strong Buy Candidate.
(Updated on Apr 22, 2024)
The Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock price gained 0.99% on the last trading day (Monday, 22nd Apr 2024), rising from $92.93 to $93.85. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.70% from a day low at $93.02 to a day high of $94.60. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -0.74% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -217 thousand shares and in total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $115.04 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the middle of a strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 15.53% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $104.92 and $112.32 at the end of this 3-month period.
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ACGL Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the stock today. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, April 05, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.11%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). The Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $91.34 and $91.05. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock
Arch Capital Group Ltd. finds support from accumulated volume at $92.23 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $1.58 between high and low, or 1.70%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.59%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $90.51 (-3.56%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 11 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (ACGL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 23rd
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 23rd we expect Arch Capital Group Ltd. to open at $93.82, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $92.16 and $95.54, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.69 (+/-1.80%) up or down from last closing price. If Arch Capital Group Ltd. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.60% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $94.55 (0.75%) than the support at $92.23 (1.73%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Arch Capital Group Ltd. will release earnings AMC on Monday, April 29, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $2.06. We will update the financials statements for Arch Capital Group Ltd., that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 2.44% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. stock A Buy?
Arch Capital Group Ltd. holds several positive signals and is within a strong rising trend. As the old saying says, "Let the trend be your friend.'". We therefore consider it to be a good choice at these current levels and we are expecting further gains during the next 3 months. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Strong Buy candidate.
Current score: 5.144 Strong Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Arch Capital Group Ltd. of Tuesday, April 23, 2024
| Fair opening price April 23, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $93.82 ( 0.0302%) | $93.85 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ACGL
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 95.41 | 1.66 % | |
| R2 | 94.80 | 1.01 % | ||
| R1 | 94.43 | 0.615 % | ||
| Current price: | 93.85 | |||
| Support | S1 | 93.22 | -0.675 % | |
| S2 | 92.84 | -1.07 % | ||
| S3 | 92.24 | -1.72 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0 | . | |
| R2 | 94.90 | 1.12 % | ||
| R1 | 94.55 | 0.746 % | ||
| Current price | 93.85 | |||
| Support | S1 | 92.23 | -1.73% | |
| S2 | 91.88 | -2.10% | ||
| S3 | 87.59 | -6.67% |
FAQ
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