ALDR stock forecast Alder BioPharmaceuticals

ALDR stock forecast

Friday September 20, 2019 Change -0.11% Price $18.64
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ALDR Forecast and Technical Stock Analysis

Buy candidate since 2019-09-19 Loss -0.11% PDF

Alder BioPharmaceuticals fell by -0.11% in the last day ( Friday, 20th Sep 2019 ) from $18.66 to $18.64 and has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the day the stock fluctuated 0.65% from a day low at $18.60 to a day high of $18.72. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 114.5% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased in the last day by 0.27 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly for the next couple of days. In total, 6.60 million shares bought and sold for approximately $122.95 million.

Quick summary:

  • 30 day high of the ALDR stock price was $18.90 and low was $8.39.
  • 90 day high was $18.90 and low was $8.39.
  • 52 week high for Alder BioPharmaceuticals - $18.90 and low - $8.39.
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Alder BioPharmaceuticals lies in the upper part of a very wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $18.75 will firstly indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 6.8% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $9.44 and $20.02 at the end of this period.

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There are mixed signals in the stock today. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday September 18, 2019, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely. Alder BioPharmaceuticals holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at $16.14 and $10.60. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSImin/max Values: [ 25 - 75 ]

RSI14 is 92 and the stock is extremely overbought on RSI14, so further reactions should be expected. Some stocks may have a long and hard correction after reaching so high an RSI, but not in all cases. However, the short-term risk has increased drastically and larger movements in the next couple of days can be expected.

* uses dynamical calculated RSI max/min levels to determine when stock is oversold or overbought based on historical behaviour.

Support & Resistance

Alder BioPharmaceuticals finds support from accumulated volume at $18.50.

Support: $18.50 Price: $18.64 Resistance: $18.66


This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.12 between high and low, or 0.65%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 1.47%.

The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stop-loss: $18.21 (-2.29%) (This stock has very high daily movements and this gives very high risk. The RSI14 is 92 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from pivot top found 2 day(s) ago.)

1.47 %

Average volatility

Overall risk:

Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Buy Candidate Upgraded


Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for this stock to perform well in the short-term.

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