Alarm.com Holdings Stock Analysis
Technical stock analysis for 22 January 2019
Alarm.com Holdings fell by -1.62% in the last day from $60.38 to $59.40 The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 15.36% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell in the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. In the last day the trading volume fell by -181 610 shares and in total 962 606 shares bought and sold for approximately $57.18 million.
Close price at the end of the last trading day (Tuesday, 22nd Jan 2019) of the ALRM stock was $59.40. This is 1.62% less than the trading day before Friday, 18th Jan 2019.
During day the stock fluctuated 4.86% from a day low at $58.78 to a day high of $61.64.
30 day high of the ALRM stock price was $61.64 and low was $43.74.
90 day high was $61.64 and low was $40.92.
52 week high for the Alarm.com Holdings - $61.64 and low - $33.39.
Alarm.com Holdings lies in the upper part of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $60.58 will firstly indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 24.41% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $59.96 and $75.37 at the end of this period.
Alarm.com Holdings holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at $57.38 and $52.24. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday January 18, 2019, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The stock holds a RSI14 at 75 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sales signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $49.65 and $47.27.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Alarm.com Holdings finds support just below today's level at $49.65. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $47.27 and $46.87.
This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $2.86 between high and low, or 4.86%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 3.83%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stoploss: $56.42 (-5.02%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. The RSI14 is 75 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from pivot top found 1 days ago.)
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Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for this stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy Candidate.
|ALRM $59.40 $-0.98(-1.62%)|
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