AMERISAFE Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Stronger technical forecast for AMERISAFE stock price after Friday trading.
(Updated on Apr 19, 2024)
The AMERISAFE stock price gained 1.74% on the last trading day (Friday, 19th Apr 2024), rising from $50.01 to $50.88. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.88% from a day low at $50.07 to a day high of $51.01. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 6.96% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -32 thousand shares and in total, 132 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $6.71 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock is moving within a wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect AMERISAFE stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $46.96 and $52.48 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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AMSF Signals & Forecast
Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The AMERISAFE stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the stock has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $48.86 and $50.02. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, April 11, 2024, and so far it has risen 7.07%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 in the long-term chart.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Golden Star 12 Months
The stock had a Golden Star Signal on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 in the long-term chart.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for AMERISAFE stock
AMERISAFE finds support from accumulated volume at $50.53 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $0.94 (1.88%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.89%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $49.24 (-3.22%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 6 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (AMSF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 22nd
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 22nd we expect AMERISAFE to open at $50.65, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $50.00 and $51.76, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.88 (+/-1.73%) up or down from last closing price. If AMERISAFE takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.46% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $50.53 (0.69%) than the resistance at $52.86 (3.89%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Earnings coming up
AMERISAFE will release earnings AMC on Wednesday, April 24, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.660. We will update the financials statements for AMERISAFE, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 2.33% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is AMERISAFE stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for AMERISAFE stock to perform well in the short-term period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 3.183 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for AMERISAFE of Monday, April 22, 2024
| Fair opening price April 22, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $50.65 ( 0.445%) | $50.88 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for AMSF
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 51.59 | 1.40 % | |
| R2 | 51.23 | 0.696 % | ||
| R1 | 51.01 | 0.260 % | ||
| Current price: | 50.88 | |||
| Support | S1 | 50.29 | -1.15 % | |
| S2 | 50.07 | -1.59 % | ||
| S3 | 49.71 | -2.29 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 53.11 | 4.38 % | |
| R2 | 52.88 | 3.93 % | ||
| R1 | 52.86 | 3.89 % | ||
| Current price | 50.88 | |||
| Support | S1 | 50.53 | -0.688% | |
| S2 | 49.44 | -2.83% | ||
| S3 | 49.39 | -2.93% |
AMSF Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 19, 2024 | Mar 07, 2024 | Mar 22, 2024 | $0.370 | 0.743% |
| 2 | Oct 24, 2023 | Nov 30, 2023 | Dec 15, 2023 | $1.36 | 2.99% |
| 3 | Jul 25, 2023 | Sep 07, 2023 | Sep 22, 2023 | $0.340 | 0.660% |
| 4 | Apr 25, 2023 | Jun 15, 2023 | Jun 23, 2023 | $0.340 | 0.651% |
| 5 | Feb 17, 2023 | Mar 09, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | $0.340 | 0.693% |
FAQ
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