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AMSWA - American Software

Industry: Application Software Sector: Technology Exchange: NASDAQ

AMSWA - American Software

Industry: Application Software Sector: Technology Exchange: NASDAQ
#2176()/6403

Thu 18'th Jan 2018

PERIOD 2017-10-19 - 2018-01-18
CHANGE 0.31%
PRICE $12.92
VOLUME
Sell
TREND
Hold

MV LONG
Buy

MV SHORT
Buy

PIVOT
Sell

MACD
Buy

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American Software Stock Analysis

Technical stock analysis for Thu 18'th Jan 2018

Shorts 1.34% ( 2017-12-29 )
Cash 326.6 mill
Loans n/a
Beta 0.82
ROA 12.72
Buy candidate since 2018-01-17 Gain 0.31%

American Software gained 0.31% in the last trading day, rising from $12.88 to $12.92 The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 7.76% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell in the last day by -54 754 shares, and in total, 58 305 shares bought and sold for approximately $753 301. You should take into consideration that a falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes for the next couple of days.

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Trend

American Software is the upper part of a wide and horizontal trend and normally this would pose a good selling opportunity, but a break-up through the top trend line at $12.99 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend you can expect American Software with 90% probability to be traded between $11.65 and $13.00 at the end of this period with 90% probability. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the roof. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

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Signals

American Software holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at $12.76 and $12.13. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday January 12, 2018, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day while the price increased. This causes a divergence and may be considered as an early warning, but it may also not.

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Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The stock holds a RSI14 at 76 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sales signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.

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Support & Resistance

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $12.24 and $11.98. On the upside the stock meets some resistance just above today's level from accumulated volume at $12.95, $12.97 and $12.98.

There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, American Software finds support just below today's level at $12.24. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $11.98 and $11.66. The stock is about to test the resistance from accumulated volume at $12.95 and this may cause the stock to take a minor break or get into a more sideways move for a few days.

Support: $12.24 Price: $12.92 Resistance: $12.95

Risk

This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with periodic low trading volume this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.28 between high and low, or 2.20%. For the last week the stock has had a daily average volatility of 2.73%.

The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.

Our recommended stoploss: $12.46 (-3.56%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 76 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from pivot top found 3 days ago.)

Overall risk:

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Evaluation

Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for this stock to perform well in the short-term period. We have upgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy Candidate.

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