Amazon Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Amazon stock downgraded to Sell Candidate
(Updated on Apr 24, 2024)
The stock lies in the lower part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $174.49 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 12.03% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $195.49 and $215.15 at the end of this 3-month period.
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AMZN Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Amazon stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $178.83 and $179.52. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, April 11, 2024, and so far it has fallen -6.59%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Amazon stock
Amazon finds support from accumulated volume at $174.42 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $4.14 (2.35%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.47%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (AMZN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 25th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 25th we expect Amazon.com, Inc. to open at $177.70, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $172.68 and $180.50, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.91 (+/-2.21%) up or down from last closing price. If Amazon.com, Inc. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.43% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $176.76 (0.10%) than the support at $174.42 (1.23%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Amazon will release earnings AMC on Tuesday, April 30, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.82. We will update the financials statements for Amazon, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 3.03% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Amazon.com, Inc. stock A Buy?
The Amazon stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Amazon will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -2.375 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Amazon.com, Inc. of Thursday, April 25, 2024
| Fair opening price April 25, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $177.70 ( 0.627%) | $176.59 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for AMZN
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 181.84 | 2.97 % | |
| R2 | 180.26 | 2.08 % | ||
| R1 | 179.28 | 1.52 % | ||
| Current price: | 176.59 | |||
| Support | S1 | 176.12 | -0.269 % | |
| S2 | 175.14 | -0.82 % | ||
| S3 | 173.55 | -1.72 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 183.62 | 3.98 % | |
| R2 | 178.15 | 0.88 % | ||
| R1 | 176.76 | 0.0963 % | ||
| Current price | 176.59 | |||
| Support | S1 | 174.42 | -1.23% | |
| S2 | 171.81 | -2.71% | ||
| S3 | 159.28 | -9.80% |
FAQ
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