AppFolio Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Red day on Friday for AppFolio stock after losing 1.88%
(Updated on Apr 19, 2024)
The AppFolio stock price fell by -1.88% on the last day (Friday, 19th Apr 2024) from $212.49 to $208.50. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.43% from a day low at $207.95 to a day high of $212.99. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -10.26% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 30 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 269 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $56.08 million.
The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and weak rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 5.27% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $196.20 and $265.45 at the end of this 3-month period.
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APPF Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The AppFolio stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $216.22 and $228.60. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, March 26, 2024, and so far it has fallen -16.17%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for AppFolio stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $180.55 and $176.50. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, AppFolio finds support just below today's level at $180.55. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $176.50 and $174.38.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $5.05 between high and low, or 2.43%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.78%.
AppFolio is oversold on RSI14 (12). Some stocks may fall long and hard while being oversold on RSI, but stocks that are heavily oversold on RSI often pose good re-bounce chance and played well it can be a buy candidate.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (APPF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 22nd
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 22nd we expect AppFolio to open at $209.81, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $201.85 and $215.15, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$6.65 (+/-3.19%) up or down from last closing price. If AppFolio takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.38% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $223.66 (7.27%) than the support at $180.55 (13.41%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
AppFolio will release earnings AMC on Thursday, April 25, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.84. We will update the financials statements for AppFolio, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 4.24% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is AppFolio stock A Buy?
The AppFolio stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe AppFolio will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock.
Current score: -2.860 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for AppFolio of Monday, April 22, 2024
| Fair opening price April 22, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $209.81 ( 0.629%) | $208.50 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for APPF
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 214.86 | 3.05 % | |
| R2 | 212.93 | 2.12 % | ||
| R1 | 211.74 | 1.55 % | ||
| Current price: | 208.50 | |||
| Support | S1 | 207.88 | -0.295 % | |
| S2 | 206.69 | -0.87 % | ||
| S3 | 204.77 | -1.79 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 248.71 | 19.29 % | |
| R2 | 246.74 | 18.34 % | ||
| R1 | 223.66 | 7.27 % | ||
| Current price | 208.50 | |||
| Support | S1 | 180.55 | -13.41% | |
| S2 | 176.50 | -15.35% | ||
| S3 | 174.38 | -16.36% |
FAQ
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