ARI - Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance

Industry: REIT - Diversified Sector: Financial

Hold/Accumulate
Fri 23'rd Jun 2017

PERIOD COVERED
2017-03-24 - 2017-06-23
CHANGE
-0.21%
PRICE
$19.17
VOLUME
Buy
TREND
Hold
MV LONG
Buy
MV SHORT
Buy
PIVOT
Sell
MACD
Buy
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0.00%

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Stock Analysis

Technical stock analysis for Fri 23'rd Jun 2017

Hold candidate since 2017-06-23

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance fell by -0.21% in the last day, from USD 19.21 to USD 19.17 The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.51% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased in the last day by 1.46 million shares, but on falling prices. This is may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly for the next couple of days. In total, 2.45 million shares bought and sold for approximately USD 46.88 million.

Trend

Given the current horizontal trend you can expect Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance with 90% probability to be traded between USD 18.07 and USD 19.48 at the end of this period with 90% probability. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the roof. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

Signals

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at USD 19.09 and USD 18.61. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday June 22, 2017, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

The stock had a Golden Star Signal* on Wednesday October 12, 2016 in the mediumterm chart.

* Golden Star Signal* is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and priceline meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The stock holds a RSI14 at 76 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sales signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.

Support & Resistance

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance finds support from accumulated volume at USD 18.97, USD 18.72, and USD 18.46. On the upside the stock meets some resistance just above today's level from accumulated volume at USD 19.36, USD 19.58 and USD 19.29.

The stock is about to test the resistance from accumulated volume at USD 19.36 and this may cause the stock to take a minor break or get into a more sideways move for a few days.

Risk

This stock is usually traded at good volume, and with minor daily changes the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved USD 0.14 (0.73%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 1.21%.

Our recommended stoploss: USD 18.45 (-3.74%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. The RSI14 is 76 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from pivot top found 1 days ago.)

Evaluation

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy-recommendation. At the current level we recommend to hold or accumulate in this position whilst awaiting for further development.

Hold/Accumulate

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