Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Stock Forecast
Stronger technical forecast for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock price after Thursday trading.
(Updated on Mar 28, 2024)
The Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock price gained 1.64% on the last trading day (Thursday, 28th Mar 2024), rising from $10.96 to $11.14. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.78% from a day low at $10.96 to a day high of $11.16. The price has fallen in 5 of the last 10 days but is still up by 1.46% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -76 thousand shares and in total, 735 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $8.19 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -5.64% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $9.54 and $10.84 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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ARI Signals & Forecast
The Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $11.23. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $11.00. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, March 21, 2024, and so far it has fallen -3.55%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance finds support from accumulated volume at $11.00 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.195 between high and low, or 1.78%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.26%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $10.64 (-4.50%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 5 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (ARI) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 1st we expect Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance to open at $11.09, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $10.88 and $11.40, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.262 (+/-2.36%) up or down from last closing price. If Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.71% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $11.16 (0.18%) than the support at $11.00 (1.26%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance stock A Buy?
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.778 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance of Monday, April 1, 2024
Fair opening price April 1, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
$11.09 ( 0.494%) | $11.14 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ARI
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 11.28 | 1.26 % | |
R2 | 11.21 | 0.588 % | ||
R1 | 11.16 | 0.175 % | ||
Current price: | 11.14 | |||
Support | S1 | 11.01 | -1.16 % | |
S2 | 10.96 | -1.58 % | ||
S3 | 10.89 | -2.24 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 11.71 | 5.12 % | |
R2 | 11.55 | 3.68 % | ||
R1 | 11.16 | 0.180 % | ||
Current price | 11.14 | |||
Support | S1 | 11.00 | -1.26% | |
S2 | 10.74 | -3.59% | ||
S3 | 10.51 | -5.66% |
ARI Dividend Payout History
# | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mar 12, 2024 | Mar 27, 2024 | Apr 15, 2024 | $0.350 | 3.14% |
2 | Dec 12, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | Jan 12, 2024 | $0.350 | 2.99% |
3 | Sep 12, 2023 | Sep 28, 2023 | Oct 13, 2023 | $0.350 | 3.47% |
4 | Jun 13, 2023 | Jun 29, 2023 | Jul 14, 2023 | $0.350 | 2.98% |
5 | Mar 14, 2023 | Mar 30, 2023 | Apr 14, 2023 | $0.350 | 3.81% |
FAQ
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