ARIA - ARIAD Pharmaceuticals Tue 24'th Jan 2017
Stock analysis for Tue 24'th Jan 2017 (Updated daily)
Buy candidate since 2017-01-24
ARIAD Pharmaceuticals Stock Analysis
ARIAD Pharmaceuticals gained 0.13% in the last trading day, rising from USD 23.71 to USD 23.74. The price has risen in 5 of the last 10 days days, but is still down by -0.04% for this period. Volume also increased in the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 2.64 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 11.68 million shares bought and sold for approximately USD 277 million.
ARIAD Pharmaceuticals lies in the upper part of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at USD 25.78 will firstly indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 92.2% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between USD 29.23 and USD 49.55 at the end of this period.
Only positive signals in the chart today. ARIAD Pharmaceuticals holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at USD 23.70 and USD 16.13. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday January 17, 2017, which indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
* Golden Star Signal* is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and priceline meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the stock in question.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI14 is 98 and the stock is extremely overbought on RSI14, but may also ontinue to gain. Some stocks see their best performance while being overbought, but very seldom does RSI remain so high for a long time without short corrections. Risk has therefore increased and larger daily movements can be expected for the next couple of days.
Support & Resistance
ARIAD Pharmaceuticals finds support from accumulated volume at USD 23.71, USD 23.70, and USD 23.68. On the upside the stock meets some resistance just above today's level from accumulated volume at USD 23.75.
The stock is about to test the resistance at USD 23.75. If this level is broken the stock may move faster and we often see a peak at the end of such a break, posing a good sales opportunity as in 90% of the cases you will get a reaction back to the level broken before new gains. A break should be followed by increasing volume else the break may be false and despite a break of the actual resistance level the stock falls back fairly soon.
This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved USD 0.05 between high and low, or 0.21%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 0.34%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stoploss: USD 23.00 (-3.12%) ( based on support and risk)
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for this stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy Candidate.