Arrowhead Research Corporation Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Arrowhead Research Corporation stock downgraded to Strong Sell Candidate
(Updated on Apr 19, 2024)
The Arrowhead Research Corporation stock price fell by -1.24% on the last day (Friday, 19th Apr 2024) from $22.61 to $22.33. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.64% from a day low at $21.75 to a day high of $22.76. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -13.38% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -368 thousand shares and in total, 894 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $19.96 million.
The stock has broken the very wide and falling short-term trend down. Firstly a stronger fallrate is indicated, but false breaks and "sell-off" may occur. However, a further fall is realistic and any reactions back to the breaking point ($22.85) are considered to be a "second chance" to get out. According to the fan-theory $14.86 will represent the new bottom line of the next trend, but it is far too early to say this for certain.
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ARWR Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Arrowhead Research Corporation stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $23.65 and $27.94. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, March 01, 2024, and so far it has fallen -38.11%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Arrowhead Research Corporation stock
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $1.01 between high and low, or 4.64%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.57%.
Arrowhead Research Corporation is oversold on RSI14 (15). Some stocks may fall long and hard while being oversold on RSI, but stocks that are heavily oversold on RSI often pose good re-bounce chance and played well it can be a buy candidate.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (ARWR) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 22nd
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 22nd we expect Arrowhead Research Corporation to open at $22.28, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $21.09 and $23.57, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.24 (+/-5.56%) up or down from last closing price. If Arrowhead Research Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 11.12% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $22.61, some $0.280 (1.25%) from the current price of $22.33, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.
Is Arrowhead Research Corporation stock A Buy?
Arrowhead Research Corporation holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Strong Sell candidate.
Current score: -7.198 Strong Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Arrowhead Research Corporation of Monday, April 22, 2024
| Fair opening price April 22, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $22.28 ( 0.224%) | $22.33 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ARWR
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 23.29 | 4.30 % | |
| R2 | 22.90 | 2.57 % | ||
| R1 | 22.67 | 1.50 % | ||
| Current price: | 22.33 | |||
| Support | S1 | 21.89 | -1.95 % | |
| S2 | 21.66 | -3.02 % | ||
| S3 | 21.27 | -4.75 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 27.42 | 22.79 % | |
| R2 | 26.19 | 17.29 % | ||
| R1 | 22.61 | 1.25 % | ||
| Current price | 22.33 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0 | . | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
FAQ
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