Vanguard Total International Bond ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Vanguard Total International Bond ETF downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Tuesday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 23, 2024)
The Vanguard Total International Bond ETF price fell by -0.144% on the last day (Tuesday, 23rd Apr 2024) from $48.65 to $48.58. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.268% from a day low at $48.52 to a day high of $48.65. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -0.86% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -249 thousand shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $111.22 million.
The ETF is at the lower part of a narrow and horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $48.52 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Vanguard Total International Bond ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $48.58 and $49.33 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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BNDX Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, April 18, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.0824%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Vanguard Total International Bond ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $48.60 and $48.89. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
A buy signal from a double bottom formation was found on Thursday, April 18, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should go up by 1.93% to $49.52 within 40 trading days since signal was issued (Wednesday, April 24, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Total International Bond ETF
Vanguard Total International Bond finds support from accumulated volume at $48.55 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.130 between high and low, or 0.268%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.243%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $45.57 (-6.19%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 3 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (BNDX) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 24th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 24th we expect Vanguard Total International Bond ETF to open at $48.58, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $48.42 and $48.74, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.157 (+/-0.32%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Total International Bond ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.65% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $48.60 (0.04%) than the support at $48.55 (0.06%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Vanguard Total International Bond ETF ETF A Buy?
Vanguard Total International Bond holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.451 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Total International Bond ETF of Wednesday, April 24, 2024
| Fair opening price April 24, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $48.58 ( 0.0069%) | $48.58 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for BNDX
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 48.71 | 0.274 % | |
| R2 | 48.66 | 0.172 % | ||
| R1 | 48.63 | 0.109 % | ||
| Current price: | 48.58 | |||
| Support | S1 | 48.53 | -0.0954 % | |
| S2 | 48.50 | -0.159 % | ||
| S3 | 48.45 | -0.261 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 48.88 | 0.618 % | |
| R2 | 48.68 | 0.206 % | ||
| R1 | 48.60 | 0.0412 % | ||
| Current price | 48.58 | |||
| Support | S1 | 48.55 | -0.0618% | |
| S2 | 48.49 | -0.196% | ||
| S3 | 48.47 | -0.226% |
BNDX Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 27, 2024 | Apr 01, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | $0.0913 | 0.186% |
| 2 | Feb 28, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 06, 2024 | $0.0851 | 0.174% |
| 3 | Jan 30, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 06, 2024 | $0.0859 | 0.176% |
| 4 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | $1.36 | 2.74% |
| 5 | Nov 29, 2023 | Dec 01, 2023 | Dec 06, 2023 | $0.0873 | 0.175% |
FAQ
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