Caterpillar Inc Stock Forecast
Weaker technical forecast for Caterpillar Inc as stock downgraded to Sell Candidate.
(Updated on Apr 19, 2024)
The Caterpillar Inc stock price fell by -0.91% on the last day (Friday, 19th Apr 2024) from $357.93 to $354.66. It has now fallen 7 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.48% from a day low at $352.22 to a day high of $360.95. The price has fallen in 9 of the last 10 days and is down by -6.5% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 430 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $818.42 million.
Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 25.37% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $444.64 and $491.57 at the end of this 3-month period.
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CAT Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Caterpillar Inc stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $361.76 and $355.95. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, April 05, 2024, and so far it has fallen -6.50%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Caterpillar Inc stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $321.40 and $315.09. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Caterpillar Inc finds support just below today's level at $321.40. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $315.09 and $300.77.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $8.73 between high and low, or 2.48%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.51%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (CAT) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 22nd
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 22nd we expect Caterpillar Inc to open at $355.94, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $346.57 and $362.75, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$8.09 (+/-2.28%) up or down from last closing price. If Caterpillar Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.56% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $356.45 (0.50%) than the support at $321.40 (9.38%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Caterpillar Inc will release earnings BMO on Thursday, April 25, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $5.12. We will update the financials statements for Caterpillar Inc, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 4.64% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Caterpillar Inc stock A Buy?
The Caterpillar Inc stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Caterpillar Inc will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -2.692 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Caterpillar Inc of Monday, April 22, 2024
| Fair opening price April 22, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $355.94 ( 0.362%) | $354.66 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CAT
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 364.67 | 2.82 % | |
| R2 | 361.34 | 1.88 % | ||
| R1 | 359.28 | 1.30 % | ||
| Current price: | 354.66 | |||
| Support | S1 | 352.61 | -0.578 % | |
| S2 | 350.55 | -1.16 % | ||
| S3 | 347.21 | -2.10 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 364.56 | 2.79 % | |
| R2 | 359.88 | 1.47 % | ||
| R1 | 356.45 | 0.505 % | ||
| Current price | 354.66 | |||
| Support | S1 | 321.40 | -9.38% | |
| S2 | 315.09 | -11.16% | ||
| S3 | 300.77 | -15.19% |
CAT Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 10, 2024 | Apr 19, 2024 | May 20, 2024 | $1.30 | 0.367% |
| 2 | Dec 13, 2023 | Jan 19, 2024 | Feb 20, 2024 | $1.30 | 0.414% |
| 3 | Oct 20, 2023 | Oct 20, 2023 | Nov 20, 2023 | $1.30 | 0.519% |
| 4 | Jun 14, 2023 | Jul 20, 2023 | Aug 18, 2023 | $1.30 | 0.475% |
| 5 | Jun 14, 2023 | Jul 19, 2023 | Aug 18, 2023 | $1.30 | 0.475% |
FAQ
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