Cenovus Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Cenovus stock price ended at $20.66 on Thursday, after losing 0.193%.
(Updated on Apr 18, 2024)
The Cenovus stock price fell by -0.193% on the last day (Thursday, 18th Apr 2024) from $20.70 to $20.66. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.67% from a day low at $20.48 to a day high of $21.03. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -2.13% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -7 million shares and in total, 9 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $193.11 million.
The stock lies in the lower part of a strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $20.56 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 40.12% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $28.81 and $31.42 at the end of this 3-month period.
Ready to grow your portfolio? Here's your beginner's guide to opening a free brokerage account.
CVE Signals & Forecast
The Cenovus stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $20.91. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $19.54. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, April 10, 2024, and so far it has fallen -5.23%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Cenovus stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $17.92 and $17.46. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Cenovus finds support just below today's level at $17.92. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $17.46 and $16.22.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.546 between high and low, or 2.67%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.84%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $19.57 (-5.26%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 6 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (CVE) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 19th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 19th we expect Cenovus Energy Inc to open at $20.72, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $20.19 and $21.13, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.467 (+/-2.26%) up or down from last closing price. If Cenovus Energy Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.52% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $20.70 (0.19%) than the support at $17.92 (13.26%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Cenovus will release earnings BMO on Wednesday, April 24, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.340. We will update the financials statements for Cenovus, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 5.98% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Cenovus Energy Inc stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Cenovus stock to perform well in the short-term.
Current score: 2.753 Buy Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Cenovus Energy Inc of Friday, April 19, 2024
| Fair opening price April 19, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $20.72 ( 0.313%) | $20.66 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for CVE
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 21.27 | 2.96 % | |
| R2 | 21.06 | 1.95 % | ||
| R1 | 20.93 | 1.32 % | ||
| Current price: | 20.66 | |||
| Support | S1 | 20.52 | -0.697 % | |
| S2 | 20.39 | -1.32 % | ||
| S3 | 20.18 | -2.33 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 21.09 | 2.08 % | |
| R2 | 20.95 | 1.40 % | ||
| R1 | 20.70 | 0.194 % | ||
| Current price | 20.66 | |||
| Support | S1 | 17.92 | -13.26% | |
| S2 | 17.46 | -15.49% | ||
| S3 | 16.22 | -21.49% |
CVE Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 15, 2024 | Mar 14, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.104 | 0.520% |
| 2 | Nov 02, 2023 | Dec 14, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.100 | 0.601% |
| 3 | Jul 27, 2023 | Sep 14, 2023 | Sep 29, 2023 | $0.106 | 0.509% |
| 4 | Apr 26, 2023 | Jun 14, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | $0.105 | 0.618% |
| 5 | Feb 16, 2023 | Mar 14, 2023 | Mar 31, 2023 | $0.0760 | 0.435% |
FAQ
Click here for our free guide on how to buy Cenovus Stock.
