Ellington Financial LLC Stock Forecast
Ellington Financial LLC stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate
(Updated on Apr 23, 2024)
The Ellington Financial LLC stock price gained 1.74% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 23rd Apr 2024), rising from $11.47 to $11.67. It has now gained 5 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.83% from a day low at $11.46 to a day high of $11.67. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.69% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 63 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 707 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $8.25 million.
The stock lies the upper part of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $11.75 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -9.61% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $9.17 and $10.62 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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EFC Signals & Forecast
The Ellington Financial LLC stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the stock has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $11.29 and $11.42. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, February 28, 2024, and so far it has risen 6.97%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Ellington Financial LLC stock
Ellington Financial LLC finds support from accumulated volume at $11.40 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $0.210 (1.83%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.57%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $11.22 (-3.88%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 38 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (EFC) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 24th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 24th we expect Ellington Financial LLC to open at $11.60, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $11.45 and $11.89, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.222 (+/-1.91%) up or down from last closing price. If Ellington Financial LLC takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.81% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $11.82 (1.29%) than the support at $11.40 (2.31%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Ellington Financial LLC stock A Buy?
Ellington Financial LLC holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.801 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Ellington Financial LLC of Wednesday, April 24, 2024
| Fair opening price April 24, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $11.60 ( 0.599%) | $11.67 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for EFC
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 11.81 | 1.20 % | |
| R2 | 11.73 | 0.512 % | ||
| R1 | 11.68 | 0.0875 % | ||
| Current price: | 11.67 | |||
| Support | S1 | 11.52 | -1.29 % | |
| S2 | 11.47 | -1.71 % | ||
| S3 | 11.39 | -2.40 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 12.94 | 10.88 % | |
| R2 | 12.32 | 5.57 % | ||
| R1 | 11.82 | 1.29 % | ||
| Current price | 11.67 | |||
| Support | S1 | 11.40 | -2.31% | |
| S2 | 11.29 | -3.26% | ||
| S3 | 10.91 | -6.51% |
EFC Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 29, 2024 | Apr 29, 2024 | May 28, 2024 | $0.130 | 1.11% |
| 2 | Mar 27, 2024 | Mar 27, 2024 | Apr 25, 2024 | $0.130 | 1.11% |
| 3 | Feb 07, 2024 | Feb 28, 2024 | Mar 25, 2024 | $0.150 | 1.27% |
| 4 | Jan 30, 2024 | Jan 30, 2024 | Feb 26, 2024 | $0.150 | 1.24% |
| 5 | Dec 15, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | Jan 25, 2024 | $0.0900 | 0.700% |
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