Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, which purpose is to provide a relative definition of high and low. This defintion is used to identify buy and sell signals and have proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. Get-A-Graph uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicates a upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line, or continuously movements above the moving average line indicates a break up, and vice versa downwards.
Novavax Forecast and Stock Analysis
Technical NVAX stock analysis for March 22, 2019.
Novavax fell by -13.44% in the last day from $0.63 to $0.54 and has now fallen 3 days in a row. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 4.02% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell in the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. In the last day the trading volume fell by -0.18 million shares and in total 25.47 million shares bought and sold for approximately $13.78 million.
Close price at the end of the last trading day (Friday, 22nd Mar 2019) of the NVAX stock was $0.54. This is 13.44% less than the trading day before Thursday, 21st Mar 2019.
During day the stock fluctuated 11.01% from a day low at $0.53 to a day high of $0.59.
30 day high of the NVAX stock price was $2.17 and low was $0.49.
90 day high was $2.44 and low was $0.49.
52 week high for the Novavax - $2.58 and low - $0.49.
Novavax lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -57.56% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $0.10 and $0.55 at the end of this period.
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday March 11, 2019, which indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Novavax holds sales signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general sales signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up there will be some resistance from the lines at $0.56 and $1.38. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI14 is 39 and the stock is currently not being overbought or oversold
Support & Resistance
Novavax finds support from accumulated volume at $0.52.
This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.06 between high and low, or 11.01%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 12.92%.
Our recommended stoploss: We hold a sell evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss set.
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Evaluation: Sell Candidate
Novavax holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.