First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index ETF price ended at $173.94 on Friday, after losing 2.24%.
(Updated on Apr 19, 2024)
The First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index ETF price fell by -2.24% on the last day (Friday, 19th Apr 2024) from $177.92 to $173.94. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 2.69% from a day low at $173.20 to a day high of $177.86. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -7.81% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 42 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 140 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $24.28 million.
Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $175.84 and $198.84 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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QTEC Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $182.04 and $188.56. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, March 07, 2024, and so far it has fallen -11.10%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index ETF
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the ETF may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $4.66 (2.69%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 2.15%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (QTEC) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 22nd
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 22nd we expect First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index Fund to open at $175.00, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $170.47 and $177.41, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.47 (+/-2.00%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.00% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $179.37, some $5.43 (3.12%) from the current price of $173.94, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.
Is First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index Fund ETF A Buy?
First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
Current score: -1.133 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for First Trust NASDAQ-100- Technology Index Fund of Monday, April 22, 2024
| Fair opening price April 22, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $175.00 ( 0.610%) | $173.94 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for QTEC
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 179.66 | 3.29 % | |
| R2 | 177.88 | 2.26 % | ||
| R1 | 176.78 | 1.63 % | ||
| Current price: | 173.94 | |||
| Support | S1 | 173.22 | -0.413 % | |
| S2 | 172.12 | -1.05 % | ||
| S3 | 170.34 | -2.07 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 192.75 | 10.81 % | |
| R2 | 189.83 | 9.14 % | ||
| R1 | 179.37 | 3.12 % | ||
| Current price | 173.94 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0 | . | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
QTEC Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 21, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.0084 | 0.0044% |
| 2 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.0312 | 0.0178% |
| 3 | Sep 21, 2023 | Sep 22, 2023 | Sep 29, 2023 | $0.0310 | 0.0213% |
| 4 | Jun 26, 2023 | Jun 27, 2023 | Jun 30, 2023 | $0.0590 | 0.0401% |
| 5 | Mar 23, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | Mar 31, 2023 | $0.117 | 0.0896% |
FAQ
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