Real Goods Solar Stock Analysis

Technical stock analysis for Fri 20'th Oct 2017

Buy candidate since 2017-10-06 Gain 40.25%

Real Goods Solar fell by -5.11% in the last day from $2.35 to $2.23 The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 40.25% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell in the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. In the last day the trading volume fell by -9.00 million shares and in total 1.01 million shares bought and sold for approximately $2.25 million.

Trend

Real Goods Solar lies in the middle of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 80.32% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $2.69 and $4.67 at the end of this period.

Signals

Real Goods Solar holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at $2.16 and $1.28. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday October 19, 2017, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI14 is 67 and the stock is currently not being overbought or oversold

Support & Resistance

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $2.10 and $1.81. On the upside the stock meets some resistance just above today's level from accumulated volume at $2.25, $2.35 and $2.37.

There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Real Goods Solar finds support just below today's level at $2.10. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $1.81 and $1.80. The stock is about to test the resistance from accumulated volume at $2.25 and this may cause the stock to take a minor break or get into a more sideways move for a few days.

Risk

This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.16 between high and low, or 7.27%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 11.50%.

Our recommended stoploss: $2.11 (-5.60%) (This stock has very high daily movements and this gives very high risk. There is a sell signal from pivot top found 1 days ago.)

Overall risk:

Very Low Low Medium High Very High

Evaluation

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for this stock to perform well in the short-term. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Strong Buy Candidate to a Buy Candidate.