Fri 21'st Apr 2017
Select Comfort Corporation Stock Analysis
Technical stock analysis for Fri 21'st Apr 2017
Hold candidate since 2017-04-21
Select Comfort Corporation lies in the upper part of a very wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at USD 33.30 will firstly indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 27.3% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between USD 32.01 and USD 42.39 at the end of this period.
Select Comfort Corporation holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at USD 27.20 and USD 24.93. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday April 20, 2017, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The stock holds a RSI14 at 77 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sales signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at USD 25.87 and USD 24.92. On the upside the stock meets some resistance just above today's level from accumulated volume at USD 33.18.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Select Comfort Corporation finds support just below today's level at 25.87. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at 24.92 and 24.54. The stock is about to test the resistance at USD 33.18. If this level is broken the stock may move faster and we often see a peak at the end of such a break, posing a good sales opportunity as in 90% of the cases you will get a reaction back to the level broken before new gains. A break should be followed by increasing volume else the break may be false and despite a break of the actual resistance level the stock falls back fairly soon.
This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved USD 1.27 between high and low, or 3.99%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 5.38%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stoploss: USD 30.18 (-5.73%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. The RSI14 is 77 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from pivot top found 1 days ago.)