Thu 22'nd Mar 2018
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, which purpose is to provide a relative definition of high and low. This defintion is used to identify buy and sell signals and have proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. Get-A-Graph uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicates a upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line, or continuously movements above the moving average line indicates a break up, and vice versa downwards.
State Auto Financial Corporation Stock Analysis
Technical stock analysis for Thu 22'nd Mar 2018
State Auto Financial Corporation fell by -2.25% in the last day from $30.19 to $29.51 and has now fallen 3 days in a row. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 1.3% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased in the last day by 6 573 shares, but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly for the next couple of days. In total, 41 479 shares bought and sold for approximately $1.22 million.
|Shorts||14.88% ( 2018-02-28 )|
Given the current horizontal trend you can expect State Auto Financial Corporation with 90% probability to be traded between $28.13 and $30.85 at the end of this period with 90% probability. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the roof. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
There are mixed signals in the stock today. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday March 20, 2018, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found. State Auto Financial Corporation gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-off's". State Auto Financial Corporation holds a sales signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term moving average at approximately $29.85. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $28.89. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sales signal.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI14 is 70 and the stock is currently not being overbought or oversold
Support & Resistance
State Auto Financial Corporation finds support from accumulated volume at $28.98. On the upside the stock meets some resistance just above today's level from accumulated volume at $29.95, $29.99 and $30.10.
The stock is about to test the resistance from accumulated volume at $29.95 and this may cause the stock to take a minor break or get into a more sideways move for a few days.
This stock is usually traded at good volume, and with minor daily changes the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $1.49 (5.19%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 3.45%.
Our recommended stoploss: We hold a sell evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss set.
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State Auto Financial Corporation holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Buy Candidate to a Sell Candidate.
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