Tocagen Inc Forecast and Stock Analysis
Technical TOCA stock analysis for February 21, 2019.
Tocagen Inc gained 1.16% in the last trading day, rising from $10.38 to $10.50 The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -5.15% for this period. Volume fell in the last day by -36 452 shares, and in total, 105 116 shares bought and sold for approximately $1.10 million. You should take into consideration that a falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes for the next couple of days.
Close price at the end of the last trading day (Thursday, 21st Feb 2019) of the TOCA stock was $10.50. This is 1.16% more than the trading day before Wednesday, 20th Feb 2019.
During day the stock fluctuated 3.76% from a day low at $10.38 to a day high of $10.77.
30 day high of the TOCA stock price was $11.66 and low was $8.47.
90 day high was $14.75 and low was $6.47.
52 week high for the Tocagen Inc - $15.80 and low - $6.47.
Tocagen Inc lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -5.72% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $6.12 and $12.38 at the end of this period.
Tocagen Inc holds a sales signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term moving average at approximately $10.77. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $9.96. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sales signal. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday February 20, 2019, which indicates further gains until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume fell during the last trading day while the price increased. This causes a divergence and may be considered as an early warning, but it may also not.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The stock currently holds a RSI14 at 27 and is oversold on RSI14. The stock being oversold is no guarantee for instant reaction up as some stocks may be oversold for a long time. It is important to review the previous RSI-history to get an indication of the RSI-sensitiveness.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $9.95 and $9.13.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Tocagen Inc finds support just below today's level at $9.95. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $9.13 and $7.95.
This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with periodic low trading volume this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.39 between high and low, or 3.76%. For the last week the stock has had a daily average volatility of 4.05%.
Tocagen Inc is oversold on RSI14 (27). Some stocks may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Our recommended stoploss: $9.84 (-6.30%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. Low RSI14 is 27 which reduces the risk some. There is a buy signal from pivot bottom found 1 days ago.)
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Evaluation: Buy Candidate
Several short-term signals are positive, despite the stock being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for this stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Sell Candidate to a Buy Candidate.