Toll Brothers Inc Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Toll Brothers Inc stock downgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Sell Candidate after Monday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 22, 2024)
The Toll Brothers Inc stock price gained 1.43% on the last trading day (Monday, 22nd Apr 2024), rising from $112.21 to $113.81. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.46% from a day low at $111.73 to a day high of $114.48. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -8.58% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -416 thousand shares and in total, 769 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $87.47 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the lower part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $112.66 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 25.73% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $141.64 and $171.72 at the end of this 3-month period.
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TOL Signals & Forecast
Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Toll Brothers Inc stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $115.00 and $121.15. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, March 28, 2024, and so far it has fallen -12.03%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Toll Brothers Inc stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $107.64 and $105.43. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Toll Brothers Inc finds support just below today's level at $107.64. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $105.43 and $103.55.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $2.75 between high and low, or 2.46%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.86%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (TOL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 23rd
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 23rd we expect Toll Brothers Inc to open at $113.34, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $110.39 and $117.23, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.42 (+/-3.00%) up or down from last closing price. If Toll Brothers Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.01% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $114.34 (0.47%) than the support at $107.64 (5.42%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Toll Brothers Inc stock A Buy?
The Toll Brothers Inc stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Toll Brothers Inc will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -3.941 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Toll Brothers Inc of Tuesday, April 23, 2024
| Fair opening price April 23, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $113.34 ( 0.413%) | $113.81 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for TOL
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 116.09 | 2.00 % | |
| R2 | 115.04 | 1.08 % | ||
| R1 | 114.39 | 0.510 % | ||
| Current price: | 113.81 | |||
| Support | S1 | 112.29 | -1.34 % | |
| S2 | 111.64 | -1.91 % | ||
| S3 | 110.59 | -2.83 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 118.58 | 4.19 % | |
| R2 | 118.20 | 3.86 % | ||
| R1 | 114.34 | 0.466 % | ||
| Current price | 113.81 | |||
| Support | S1 | 107.64 | -5.42% | |
| S2 | 105.43 | -7.36% | ||
| S3 | 103.55 | -9.02% |
TOL Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 04, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | $0 | 0% |
| 2 | Dec 13, 2023 | Jan 11, 2024 | Jan 26, 2024 | $0.210 | 0.213% |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2023 | Oct 05, 2023 | Oct 20, 2023 | $0.210 | 0.306% |
| 4 | Jun 13, 2023 | Jul 06, 2023 | Jul 21, 2023 | $0.210 | 0.267% |
| 5 | Mar 09, 2023 | Apr 05, 2023 | Apr 21, 2023 | $0.210 | 0.340% |
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