Toll Brothers Inc Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Toll Brothers Inc stock upgraded from Sell Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Thursday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 18, 2024)
The Toll Brothers Inc stock price fell by -0.229% on the last day (Thursday, 18th Apr 2024) from $113.42 to $113.16. It has now fallen 5 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.16% from a day low at $112.79 to a day high of $116.35. The price has fallen in 8 of the last 10 days and is down by -8% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -183 thousand shares and in total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $113.76 million.
Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 28.36% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $145.25 and $174.77 at the end of this 3-month period.
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TOL Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Toll Brothers Inc stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $116.84 and $121.31. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, March 28, 2024, and so far it has fallen -12.53%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Toll Brothers Inc stock
Toll Brothers Inc finds support from accumulated volume at $107.64 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $3.56 between high and low, or 3.16%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.87%.
Toll Brothers Inc is oversold on RSI14 (21). Some stocks may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Our recommended stop-loss: $106.28 (-6.08%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. Low RSI14 is 21 which reduces the risk some. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 14 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (TOL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 19th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 19th we expect Toll Brothers Inc to open at $114.10, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $109.66 and $116.66, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.50 (+/-3.09%) up or down from last closing price. If Toll Brothers Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.18% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $114.34 (1.04%) than the support at $107.64 (4.88%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Toll Brothers Inc stock A Buy?
Toll Brothers Inc holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.472 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Toll Brothers Inc of Friday, April 19, 2024
| Fair opening price April 19, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $114.10 ( 0.83%) | $113.16 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for TOL
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 117.66 | 3.98 % | |
| R2 | 116.30 | 2.77 % | ||
| R1 | 115.46 | 2.03 % | ||
| Current price: | 113.16 | |||
| Support | S1 | 112.74 | -0.371 % | |
| S2 | 111.90 | -1.11 % | ||
| S3 | 110.54 | -2.32 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 118.58 | 4.79 % | |
| R2 | 118.20 | 4.45 % | ||
| R1 | 114.34 | 1.04 % | ||
| Current price | 113.16 | |||
| Support | S1 | 107.64 | -4.88% | |
| S2 | 105.43 | -6.83% | ||
| S3 | 103.55 | -8.49% |
TOL Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 04, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | $0 | 0% |
| 2 | Dec 13, 2023 | Jan 11, 2024 | Jan 26, 2024 | $0.210 | 0.213% |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2023 | Oct 05, 2023 | Oct 20, 2023 | $0.210 | 0.306% |
| 4 | Jun 13, 2023 | Jul 06, 2023 | Jul 21, 2023 | $0.210 | 0.267% |
| 5 | Mar 09, 2023 | Apr 05, 2023 | Apr 21, 2023 | $0.210 | 0.340% |
FAQ
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