Trevena Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
High volatility in Trevena stock price on Thursday which ended trading at $0.366
(Updated on Apr 18, 2024)
The Trevena stock price fell by -8.96% on the last day (Thursday, 18th Apr 2024) from $0.402 to $0.366. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 18.16% from a day low at $0.364 to a day high of $0.430. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -7.58% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 808 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $438.64 thousand.
The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -41.82% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $0.183 and $0.236 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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TRVN Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Trevena stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $0.393 and $0.478. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, April 05, 2024, and so far it has fallen -12.23%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Trevena gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Trevena stock
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.0661 between high and low, or 18.16%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 12.16%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (TRVN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 19th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 19th we expect Trevena to open at $0.387, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $0.326 and $0.406, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.0404 (+/-11.05%) up or down from last closing price. If Trevena takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 22.10% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $0.371, some $0.0053 (1.45%) from the current price of $0.366, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.
Is Trevena stock A Buy?
Trevena holds several negative signals and is within a very wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Strong Sell candidate.
Current score: -7.282 Strong Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Trevena of Friday, April 19, 2024
| Fair opening price April 19, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $0.387 ( 5.64%) | $0.366 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for TRVN
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0.453 | 23.70 % | |
| R2 | 0.427 | 16.80 % | ||
| R1 | 0.412 | 12.54 % | ||
| Current price: | 0.366 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0.361 | -1.26 % | |
| S2 | 0.346 | -5.52 % | ||
| S3 | 0.321 | -12.42 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0.402 | 9.84 % | |
| R2 | 0.400 | 9.29 % | ||
| R1 | 0.371 | 1.45 % | ||
| Current price | 0.366 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0 | . | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
FAQ
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