Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Taiwan Semiconductor stock upgraded from Strong Sell Candidate to Sell Candidate after Thursday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 18, 2024)
Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 22.36% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $161.84 and $199.62 at the end of this 3-month period.
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TSM Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Taiwan Semiconductor stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $141.03 and $139.86. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, March 07, 2024, and so far it has fallen -11.35%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Taiwan Semiconductor stock
Taiwan Semiconductor finds support from accumulated volume at $129.07 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $4.83 (3.71%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.42%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (TSM) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 19th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 19th we expect Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd to open at $132.57, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $127.51 and $137.03, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$4.76 (+/-3.60%) up or down from last closing price. If Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 7.19% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $133.73 (1.10%) than the support at $129.07 (2.42%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Taiwan Semiconductor will release earnings AMC on Thursday, April 18, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $1.29. We will update the financials statements for Taiwan Semiconductor, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 4.42% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd stock A Buy?
The Taiwan Semiconductor stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe Taiwan Semiconductor will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Sell to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -4.323 Sell Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd of Friday, April 19, 2024
| Fair opening price April 19, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $132.57 ( 0.224%) | $132.27 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for TSM
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 137.40 | 3.88 % | |
| R2 | 135.55 | 2.48 % | ||
| R1 | 134.41 | 1.62 % | ||
| Current price: | 132.27 | |||
| Support | S1 | 130.72 | -1.17 % | |
| S2 | 129.58 | -2.03 % | ||
| S3 | 127.74 | -3.43 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 149.20 | 12.80 % | |
| R2 | 146.37 | 10.66 % | ||
| R1 | 133.73 | 1.10 % | ||
| Current price | 132.27 | |||
| Support | S1 | 129.07 | -2.42% | |
| S2 | 116.52 | -11.91% | ||
| S3 | 114.20 | -13.66% |
TSM Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 08, 2024 | Jun 13, 2024 | Jul 11, 2024 | $0.441 | 0.333% |
| 2 | Nov 15, 2023 | Mar 18, 2024 | Apr 11, 2024 | $0.542 | 0.368% |
| 3 | Aug 08, 2023 | Dec 14, 2023 | Jun 11, 2024 | $0.370 | 0.280% |
| 4 | May 09, 2023 | Sep 14, 2023 | Oct 12, 2023 | $0.489 | 0.529% |
| 5 | Feb 14, 2023 | Jun 15, 2023 | Oct 12, 2023 | $0.448 | 0.485% |
FAQ
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