United States Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Is United States Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF still a buy after falling -6.99% on Wednesday?
(Updated on Apr 24, 2024)
The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF price fell by -6.99% on the last day (Wednesday, 24th Apr 2024) from $15.44 to $14.36. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 4.35% from a day low at $14.32 to a day high of $14.94. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -8.36% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 3 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 9 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $126.17 million.
The ETF lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -20.88% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $10.81 and $12.65 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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UNG Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, April 15, 2024, and so far it has risen 1.56%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The United States Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $14.66 and $15.18. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for United States Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP finds support from accumulated volume at $14.35 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.623 between high and low, or 4.35%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 3.00%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (UNG) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 25th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 25th we expect United States Natural Gas Fund, LP to open at $14.54, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $13.72 and $15.00, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.636 (+/-4.43%) up or down from last closing price. If United States Natural Gas Fund, LP takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 8.85% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $14.35 (0.07%) than the resistance at $14.48 (0.84%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is United States Natural Gas Fund, LP ETF A Buy?
United States Natural Gas Fund, LP holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -2.527 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for United States Natural Gas Fund, LP of Thursday, April 25, 2024
| Fair opening price April 25, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $14.54 ( 1.25%) | $14.36 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for UNG
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 15.16 | 5.58 % | |
| R2 | 14.92 | 3.93 % | ||
| R1 | 14.78 | 2.90 % | ||
| Current price: | 14.36 | |||
| Support | S1 | 14.30 | -0.409 % | |
| S2 | 14.15 | -1.43 % | ||
| S3 | 13.92 | -3.09 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 16.17 | 12.60 % | |
| R2 | 14.89 | 3.69 % | ||
| R1 | 14.48 | 0.84 % | ||
| Current price | 14.36 | |||
| Support | S1 | 14.35 | -0.0696% | |
| S2 | 14.14 | -1.53% | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
FAQ
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