USCommodity 12 Month Oil ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
USCommodity 12 Month Oil ETF price ended at $40.10 on Friday, after losing 0.212%.
(Updated on Apr 19, 2024)
The USCommodity 12 Month Oil ETF price fell by -0.212% on the last day (Friday, 19th Apr 2024) from $40.19 to $40.10. It has now fallen 4 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.374% from a day low at $40.10 to a day high of $40.25. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -3.07% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 640 shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 6 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $247.46 thousand.
The ETF lies in the lower part of a strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $39.86 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 14.54% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $45.66 and $48.17 at the end of this 3-month period.
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USL Signals & Forecast
A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, April 10, 2024, and so far it has fallen -3.25%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). USCommodity 12 Month Oil gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs". Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The USCommodity 12 Month Oil ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $40.86. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $39.63. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for USCommodity 12 Month Oil ETF
USCommodity 12 Month Oil finds support from accumulated volume at $38.96 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.150 (0.374%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.10%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $38.56 (-3.85%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 7 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (USL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 22nd
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 22nd we expect USCommodity 12 Month Oil ETF to open at $40.15, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $39.61 and $40.59, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.494 (+/-1.23%) up or down from last closing price. If USCommodity 12 Month Oil ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.47% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $38.96 (2.84%) than the resistance at $41.37 (3.16%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is USCommodity 12 Month Oil ETF ETF A Buy?
Several of the signals/indicators are negative, and we believe that this will affect on the development for the next days and maybe possible weeks. However, over time, we think that today's level holds a possible buying opportunity and that the price will be higher during or at the end of this 3-month period.
Current score: 3.505 Buy Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for USCommodity 12 Month Oil ETF of Monday, April 22, 2024
| Fair opening price April 22, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $40.15 ( 0.125%) | $40.10 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for USL
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 40.30 | 0.499 % | |
| R2 | 40.24 | 0.356 % | ||
| R1 | 40.21 | 0.268 % | ||
| Current price: | 40.10 | |||
| Support | S1 | 40.09 | -0.0182 % | |
| S2 | 40.06 | -0.106 % | ||
| S3 | 40.00 | -0.249 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 41.41 | 3.27 % | |
| R2 | 41.37 | 3.17 % | ||
| R1 | 41.37 | 3.16 % | ||
| Current price | 40.10 | |||
| Support | S1 | 38.96 | -2.84% | |
| S2 | 37.86 | -5.57% | ||
| S3 | 37.66 | -6.07% |
FAQ
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