Vale Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Vale stock upgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Buy Candidate after Wednesday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 24, 2024)
The Vale stock price gained 1.31% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 24th Apr 2024), rising from $12.21 to $12.37. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.05% from a day low at $12.21 to a day high of $12.46. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.81% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 5 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 36 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $447.98 million.
The stock lies the upper part of a falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $12.37 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -14.50% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $9.80 and $10.58 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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VALE Signals & Forecast
Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The Vale stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the stock has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $12.05 and $12.26. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, and so far it has risen 6.00%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vale stock
Vale finds support from accumulated volume at $12.28 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.250 between high and low, or 2.05%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.56%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $11.86 (-4.14%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 6 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (VALE) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 25th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 25th we expect Vale S.A. to open at $12.35, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $12.06 and $12.68, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.314 (+/-2.54%) up or down from last closing price. If Vale S.A. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.08% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $12.28 (0.73%) than the resistance at $12.50 (1.05%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Vale S.A. stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals are positive, despite the stock being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 2.225 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Vale S.A. of Thursday, April 25, 2024
| Fair opening price April 25, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $12.35 ( 0.189%) | $12.37 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for VALE
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 12.60 | 1.83 % | |
| R2 | 12.50 | 1.06 % | ||
| R1 | 12.44 | 0.583 % | ||
| Current price: | 12.37 | |||
| Support | S1 | 12.25 | -0.96 % | |
| S2 | 12.19 | -1.44 % | ||
| S3 | 12.10 | -2.21 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 13.49 | 9.05 % | |
| R2 | 13.37 | 8.08 % | ||
| R1 | 12.50 | 1.05 % | ||
| Current price | 12.37 | |||
| Support | S1 | 12.28 | -0.728% | |
| S2 | 12.21 | -1.29% | ||
| S3 | 12.11 | -2.10% |
VALE Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 23, 2024 | Mar 12, 2024 | Mar 26, 2024 | $0.547 | 4.55% |
| 2 | Oct 27, 2023 | Nov 22, 2023 | Dec 08, 2023 | $0.310 | 2.11% |
| 3 | Jul 28, 2023 | Aug 14, 2023 | Sep 11, 2023 | $0.406 | 2.96% |
| 4 | Feb 16, 2023 | Mar 14, 2023 | Mar 29, 2023 | $0.354 | 2.27% |
| 5 | Dec 02, 2022 | Dec 13, 2022 | May 10, 2023 | $0.0560 | 0.400% |
FAQ
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