Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF Forecast
Red day on Monday for Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities
(Updated on Mar 18, 2024)
The Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF price fell by -0.155% on the last day (Monday, 18th Mar 2024) from $45.22 to $45.15. It has now fallen 6 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.266% from a day low at $45.10 to a day high of $45.22. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -0.2% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 201 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $51.06 million.
The ETF lies in the middle of a narrow and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.22% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $43.59 and $44.67 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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VMBS Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $45.48 and $45.47. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, March 08, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.40%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF
Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities finds support from accumulated volume at $45.07 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.120 between high and low, or 0.266%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.308%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (VMBS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 19th
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 19th we expect Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF to open at $45.16, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $44.93 and $45.37, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.218 (+/-0.48%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.96% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $45.07 (0.18%) than the resistance at $45.41 (0.58%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF ETF A Buy?
Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities holds several negative signals and is within a narrow and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
Current score: -3.128 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF of Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Fair opening price March 19, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
$45.16 ( 0.0148%) | $45.15 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for VMBS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 45.28 | 0.281 % | |
R2 | 45.23 | 0.179 % | ||
R1 | 45.20 | 0.116 % | ||
Current price: | 45.15 | |||
Support | S1 | 45.11 | -0.0868 % | |
S2 | 45.08 | -0.149 % | ||
S3 | 45.04 | -0.251 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 46.29 | 2.52 % | |
R2 | 46.19 | 2.30 % | ||
R1 | 45.41 | 0.576 % | ||
Current price | 45.15 | |||
Support | S1 | 45.07 | -0.177% | |
S2 | 45.02 | -0.288% | ||
S3 | 44.98 | -0.377% |
VMBS Dividend Payout History
# | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Feb 28, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 06, 2024 | $0.145 | 0.319% |
2 | Jan 30, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 06, 2024 | $0.143 | 0.314% |
3 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | $0.142 | 0.306% |
4 | Nov 29, 2023 | Dec 01, 2023 | Dec 06, 2023 | $0.141 | 0.310% |
5 | Oct 30, 2023 | Nov 01, 2023 | Nov 06, 2023 | $0.134 | 0.308% |
FAQ
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