Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF Forecast
Green day on Wednesday for Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF after gaining 0.197%
(Updated on Mar 27, 2024)
The Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF price gained 0.197% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 27th Mar 2024), rising from $45.66 to $45.75. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.263% from a day low at $45.64 to a day high of $45.76. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 0.35% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 1 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $95.81 million.
The ETFis at the upper part of a narrow and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $45.84 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $43.94 and $45.14 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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VMBS Signals & Forecast
The Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $45.54 and $45.40. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, March 08, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.0874%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, March 21, 2024 in the short-term chart.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Golden Star
The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, March 21, 2024 in the short-term chart.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF
Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities finds support from accumulated volume at $45.41 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.120 between high and low, or 0.263%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.286%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $43.92 (-3.99%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 13 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (VMBS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 28th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 28th we expect Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF to open at $45.72, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $45.55 and $45.95, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.198 (+/-0.43%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.87% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $46.01 (0.57%) than the support at $45.41 (0.74%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF ETF A Buy?
Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.
Current score: 0.722 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF of Thursday, March 28, 2024
Fair opening price March 28, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
$45.72 ( 0.0729%) | $45.75 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for VMBS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 45.84 | 0.189 % | |
R2 | 45.79 | 0.0892 % | ||
R1 | 45.76 | 0.0273 % | ||
Current price: | 45.75 | |||
Support | S1 | 45.67 | -0.173 % | |
S2 | 45.64 | -0.235 % | ||
S3 | 45.60 | -0.335 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 46.29 | 1.18 % | |
R2 | 46.19 | 0.96 % | ||
R1 | 46.01 | 0.568 % | ||
Current price | 45.75 | |||
Support | S1 | 45.41 | -0.743% | |
S2 | 45.39 | -0.787% | ||
S3 | 44.98 | -1.68% |
VMBS Dividend Payout History
# | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Feb 28, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 06, 2024 | $0.145 | 0.319% |
2 | Jan 30, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 06, 2024 | $0.143 | 0.314% |
3 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | $0.142 | 0.306% |
4 | Nov 29, 2023 | Dec 01, 2023 | Dec 06, 2023 | $0.141 | 0.310% |
5 | Oct 30, 2023 | Nov 01, 2023 | Nov 06, 2023 | $0.134 | 0.308% |
FAQ
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