YPF SA (ADR) Forecast and Stock Analysis
Technical YPF stock analysis for Wednesday June 19, 2019.
YPF SA (ADR) fell by -0.28% in the last day ( Wednesday, 19th Jun 2019 ) from $17.70 to $17.65 During day the stock fluctuated 1.36% from a day low at $17.59 to a day high of $17.83. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 17.2% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell in the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. In the last day the trading volume fell by -1.09 million shares and in total 1.24 million shares bought and sold for approximately $21.96 million.
Quick summary:
- 30 day high of the YPF stock price was $17.83 and low was $14.55.
- 90 day high was $17.83 and low was $12.68.
- 52 week high for the YPF SA (ADR) - $18.09 and low - $11.99.
Trend
YPF SA (ADR) lies in the upper part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $17.74 will firstly indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 16.98% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between $17.14 and $20.75 at the end of this period.
Signals
YPF SA (ADR) holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at $17.25 and $15.41. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday June 18, 2019, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI14 is 89 and the stock is extremely overbought on RSI14, so further reactions should be expected. Some stocks may have a long and hard correction after reaching so high an RSI, but not in all cases. However, the short-term risk has increased drastically and larger movements in the next couple of days can be expected.
Support & Resistance
YPF SA (ADR) finds support from accumulated volume at $17.22.
Risk
This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.24 between high and low, or 1.36%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 3.71%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stoploss: $16.94 (-4.05%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 89 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from pivot top found 1 days ago.)
3.71 %
Average volatilityOverall risk:
Very Low Low Medium High Very High
Evaluation:
YPF SA (ADR) holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy-recommendation. At the current level we recommend to hold or accumulate in this position whilst awaiting for further development.
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