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Is AI More Accurate Than Humans in Predicting Stock Price Changes?

ChatGPT outperforms traditional sentiment analysis methods. We find that more basic models such as GPT-1, GPT-2, and BERT cannot accurately forecast returns, indicating return predictability is an emerging capacity of complex models.
Alejandro Lopez-Lira and Yuehua Tang
University of Florida
ChatGPT can pick stocks better than your fund manager...
ChatGPT-4's implied Sharpe ratios are larger than ChatGPT-3's; however, the latter model has larger total returns. Our results suggest that incorporating advanced language models into the investment decision-making process can yield more accurate predictions and enhance the performance of quantitative trading strategies.
Danny D'Cruze
Business Today

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