Intel Stock Analysis: Neutral Technicals, Bearish MACD, Overvalued Fundamentals, 4 weeks ago

Intel Technical Analysis

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) closed at $31.09 on June 21, 2024, a 1.53% increase from the previous close, with a trading volume of 90.18 million shares, significantly higher than its average volume of 48.31 million shares. The stock's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53, indicating a neutral stance. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are $31.93 and $39.26, respectively, suggesting a downward trend over the longer term.

The MACD over the past three months is at -0.21651, reflecting bearish momentum. The average true range (ATR) is at 2.55, indicating relatively high volatility. Immediate support is at $30.85, with resistance at $31.88.

Fundamental Analysis

Intel's market capitalization of $132.35 billion and a P/E ratio of 32.05 imply a premium valuation given its earnings per share (EPS) of $0.97. The discounted cash flow (DCF) calculation returns a deeply negative value (-0.8042), hinting at overvaluation.

Intel Recent news includes adverse litigation for alleged violations of federal securities laws, which could weigh negatively on investor sentiment in the short term. On a more positive note, Intel is benefiting from an $8.5 billion investment via the CHIPS Act, which could enhance its competitive position against peers like Nvidia.


- Next Trading Day (June 24, 2024): Given the stock's close proximity to its support level ($30.85) and the high trading volume, a slight upward bias is possible. However, any negative sentiment from ongoing litigation could limit gains. - Upcoming Week: The stock may face resistance at $31.88. The high volume and legal uncertainties could lead to a volatile trading week with potential downward pressure if negative news persists.

Intrinsic Value and Long-Term Investment Potential

The consensus target price for Intel stands at $40.88, well above the current price, with a median target of $40. Additionally, 12 analysts classify it as a Buy, 16 as a Hold, and 3 as a Sell. However, the legal issues and substantial deviation from the 200-day moving average suggest caution.

The intrinsic value calculated via DCF (-0.8042) indicates the stock may be overvalued at its current price, and its long-term investment potential may be limited unless there is significant growth in earnings or resolution of legal challenges. The high market cap and favorable long-term targets are balanced against negative litigation news, considerable deviation from long-term moving averages, and a pessimistic intrinsic value assessment. Investors may prefer to monitor the stock for upcoming earnings announcements on July 25, 2024, and further legal developments before making significant decisions.

Check full Intel forecast and analysis here.