News Digest / Analysis & Ideas / Tesla Shares Plunge Over 30% This Year: Is It Time to Add It To Portfolio?

Tesla Shares Plunge Over 30% This Year: Is It Time to Add It To Portfolio?

Alex Vellor
09:13am, Thursday, Apr 04, 2024

Photo by Tesla Fans Schweiz on Unsplash

Tesla's stock experienced a significant decline, falling over 30% this year, following disappointing first-quarter deliveries. This downturn contrasts with the broader market's gains, prompting investors to consider whether now is an opportune time to invest in Tesla amidst its struggles.

The company's vehicle production and deliveries have dropped due to several challenges, including higher interest rates and a lull in its product cycle. Despite these issues, Tesla's solid cash position and dedicated customer base may provide some stability, but investors remain cautious about the stock's current valuation.

Technical Analysis of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Analyzing the current technical landscape for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) as of April 03, 2024, reveals a nuanced picture. The closing price of $168.38, alongside a modest gain of 1.05%, indicates a cautious optimism among investors. A key focal point is the stock's fluctuation between a low of $163.28 and a high of $168.82 within the trading session, showcasing volatility that merits attention.

TSLA Stock 12-month chart on StockInvest.us

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 49, positioning it at a critical juncture between potentially entering an oversold or overbought territory.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a bearish signal at -9.439416, suggesting that short-term momentum is weaker than its long-run trend strength. With the 50-day moving average at $185.65 and the 200-day moving average marking $231.27, a bearish crossover is evident, underscoring the longer-term downtrend.

However, Tesla does have identified support and resistance levels at $166.63 and $181.06, respectively. Current performance juxtaposed against these markers can offer insights into future movements. Based on the technical indicators, Tesla appears to be in a consolidating phase with potential for either direction, subject to broader market conditions and specific company catalysts.

Fundamental Analysis and Predictions

In late January, Tesla warned of lower vehicle growth in 2024 compared to 2023, a forecast that has turned out to be too optimistic. Vehicle production and deliveries in the first quarter not only failed to grow but actually decreased from both the previous quarter and the same period last year.

Specifically, Tesla produced:

Period Production Deliveries
Q1 2024 433,371 386,810
Q4 2023 495,000 485,000
Q1 2023 441,000 423,000

Fundamentally, Tesla's market capitalization of approximately $536.25 billion reflects its significant valuation within the electric vehicle (EV) sector. With an EPS of 4.3 and a PE ratio of 39.16, Tesla is seen as a growth stock, albeit at a valuation that requires substantial future earnings growth to justify.

Recent news highlights Tesla's strategic moves into India for a $3 billion EV factory, signaling long-term growth intentions in a burgeoning EV market. Additionally, shifting focus towards energy storage and autonomous technology, despite a reported annual drop in vehicle sales, underlies a diversification strategy designed to mitigate risks associated with core vehicle sales and leverage emerging tech opportunities.

Considering these developments alongside the consensus 'Buy' from analysts, with a target range significantly above the current price level, the short-term outlook may see heightened volatility leading up to the earnings announcement on April 23, 2024. Nevertheless, strong buy sentiment indicates optimism about the company's potential to navigate through its current challenges.

TSLA Long-Term Investment Potential

The diversified investment in energy storage, autonomous technology, and expansion into new markets such as India position Tesla favorably for long-term growth. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) calculation of $64.58, although far below the current trading price, suggests cautious optimism when incorporating future cash flows and growth rates reflective of Tesla's ambitious expansion and innovation ventures.

Overall Evaluation

Given the mixed signals from the technical analysis and the bullish outlook from fundamental insights, Tesla's stock is categorized as a 'Hold' in the short term. The rationale hinges on the pending volatility leading to the upcoming earnings release and the need for the market to assimilate recent strategic developments.

Investors should monitor Tesla's progress closely, especially concerning its expansion into India and advancements in energy storage and autonomous technology sectors. These factors, coupled with Tesla's capacity to innovate and scale, could redefine its intrinsic value and long-term investment potential.

In conclusion, Tesla presents a complex but promising picture, balancing inherent volatility with substantial growth avenues. Investors with a tolerance for short-term fluctuations and a focus on long-term horizons may find Tesla an intriguing entity within their portfolios.


About The Author

Alex Vellor